Reading 52: The Behavioral Biases of Individuals

50 questions available

Cognitive Errors vs. Emotional Biases5 min
Behavioral finance challenges the traditional assumption that investors are perfectly rational. Biases are categorized as either cognitive errors or emotional biases. Cognitive errors are essentially mistakes in reasoning or memory, often due to statistical shortcomings or memory faults. They are viewed as 'blind spots' that can be corrected or mitigated with better information and training. Emotional biases stem from feelings and impulses, such as fear or pride, and are harder to overcome. When a bias has both cognitive and emotional elements, focusing on the cognitive aspect is usually the more effective path to mitigation.

Key Points

  • Traditional finance assumes perfect rationality; behavioral finance assumes systematic irrationality.
  • Cognitive errors are due to faulty reasoning and can often be corrected.
  • Emotional biases stem from feelings/impulses and are difficult to correct.
  • Biases may overlap, containing both cognitive and emotional elements.
Cognitive Errors: Belief Perseverance8 min
Belief perseverance biases reflect an irrational desire to stick to prior conclusions. Conservatism bias involves maintaining prior views by inadequately incorporating new information. Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek only information that supports existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence. Representativeness bias occurs when investors rely on stereotypes or small samples to classify investments (e.g., base-rate neglect). Illusion of Control is the false belief that one can influence outcomes, often leading to under-diversification. Hindsight bias is the 'I knew it all along' effect, where past events are seen as predictable after they happen.

Key Points

  • Conservatism: Under-weighing new information.
  • Confirmation: Seeking support for existing beliefs; ignoring contrary data.
  • Representativeness: Base-rate neglect and sample-size neglect.
  • Illusion of Control: Believing one can influence uncontrollable outcomes.
  • Hindsight Bias: Seeing past events as predictable.
Cognitive Errors: Information Processing6 min
These biases relate to how information is analyzed. Anchoring and Adjustment involves fixating on a specific target number (anchor) and making insufficient adjustments. Mental Accounting treats money differently based on its source or intended use, violating the concept of fungibility. Framing bias occurs when decisions are influenced by how information is presented (e.g., gain vs. loss context). Availability bias is the tendency to estimate probability based on how easily examples come to mind, often overemphasizing recent or dramatic events.

Key Points

  • Anchoring: Fixating on an initial value (e.g., purchase price).
  • Mental Accounting: Treating fungible money differently based on source/use.
  • Framing: Decisions affected by the presentation (context) of data.
  • Availability: Estimating probabilities based on ease of recall.
Emotional Biases8 min
Emotional biases are driven by impulse and feelings. Loss Aversion is the strong preference to avoid losses over acquiring gains, often leading to risk-seeking behavior to avoid realizing a loss. Overconfidence leads investors to overestimate their knowledge and ability, causing excessive trading and under-diversification. Self-Control bias reflects a lack of discipline, favoring immediate gratification over long-term goals. Status Quo bias is the preference for things to stay the same to avoid the effort of change. Endowment bias is valuing an asset more simply because one owns it. Regret Aversion causes inaction (fear of errors of commission) or herding behavior.

Key Points

  • Loss Aversion: Pain of loss is greater than pleasure of gain.
  • Overconfidence: Illusion of knowledge and self-attribution.
  • Self-Control: Short-term satisfaction vs. long-term goals.
  • Status Quo: Doing nothing out of inertia.
  • Endowment: Overvaluing owned assets.
  • Regret Aversion: Fear of taking action that might be wrong.
Market Characteristics and Anomalies4 min
Individual biases can aggregate to create market anomalies. Bubbles and crashes may be fueled by overconfidence, confirmation bias, and herding. The value/growth anomaly, where value stocks outperform, may be explained by the halo effect (a form of representativeness). Home bias, where investors over-allocate to domestic securities, is linked to the illusion of control and familiarity (availability bias).

Key Points

  • Bubbles may be driven by overconfidence and confirmation bias.
  • Value/Growth anomaly linked to the halo effect.
  • Home bias linked to availability and illusion of control.

Questions

Question 1

Which of the following best describes the core assumption of traditional finance regarding individuals?

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Question 2

Cognitive errors are primarily due to which of the following?

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Question 3

Which approach is most likely to succeed when trying to mitigate a bias that has both cognitive and emotional elements?

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Question 4

An analyst has maintained a GDP forecast for six months. Despite new negative economic data released today, the analyst barely adjusts the original forecast. This behavior is most consistent with:

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Question 5

Confirmation bias leads market participants to:

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Question 6

A shy man is identified by a group as a librarian rather than a salesperson, despite there being far more salespeople in the population than librarians. This error is an example of:

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Question 7

Which of the following is a form of Representativeness bias?

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Question 8

Illusion of control bias creates a tendency for market participants to:

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Question 9

Hindsight bias is characterized by which of the following?

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Question 10

An investor estimates the earnings of a company will be 2.00 USD per share. After a positive announcement, the investor adjusts the estimate to 2.10 USD, even though the consensus has moved to 2.50 USD. This behavior is best described as:

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Question 11

An investor treats a 5,000 USD bonus as 'found money' and invests it in a high-risk crypto asset, while keeping their salary savings in a low-yield savings account. This is an example of:

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Question 12

In a study of New York taxi drivers, drivers worked longer hours on sunny days (low demand) to hit an income target and quit early on rainy days (high demand) once the target was met. This behavior illustrates:

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Question 13

Framing bias occurs when decisions are affected by:

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Question 14

When presented with a choice between a certain gain and a gamble with a higher expected value, most people choose the certain gain. When presented with a choice between a certain loss and a gamble with a lower expected loss, most people choose the gamble. This reversal in preference demonstrates:

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Question 15

Availability bias leads individuals to estimate probabilities based on:

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Question 16

An investor chooses a mutual fund solely because she saw an advertisement for it yesterday. This is most likely an example of:

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Question 17

Which bias is characterized by feeling more pain from a loss than pleasure from an equal gain?

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Question 18

A loss-averse investor holding a stock that has declined in value is most likely to:

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Question 19

Self-attribution bias, where one takes credit for successes but blames external factors for failures, is a component of:

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Question 20

Prediction overconfidence leads individuals to:

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Question 21

Self-control bias is often manifested as:

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Question 22

Which bias explains why participation rates in retirement plans are significantly higher when enrollment is automatic (opt-out) rather than voluntary (opt-in)?

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Question 23

An individual demands a higher price to sell an asset they own than they would be willing to pay to purchase the same asset. This is an example of:

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Question 24

Regret-aversion bias leads market participants to attach undue weight to:

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Question 25

Herding behavior, where participants go with the consensus, is a form of:

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Question 26

The halo effect, which may explain the overvaluation of growth stocks, is a version of which bias?

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Question 27

Home bias, the tendency to invest heavily in domestic firms, is most likely a result of:

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Question 28

Which bias is classified as a 'Belief Perseverance' cognitive error?

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Question 29

Which bias is classified as an 'Information-Processing' cognitive error?

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Question 30

If a bias is based on unconscious emotion that is difficult to change, it should be regarded as:

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Question 31

A portfolio manager recommends a stock because it fits the description of a 'growth stock', ignoring its deteriorating financials. This analyst is likely suffering from:

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Question 32

An investor refuses to sell a losing stock because selling would confirm that the initial decision was a mistake. This is best described as:

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Question 33

Which bias might cause an investor to trade too much by selling for small gains and holding losers?

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Question 34

To mitigate Self-control bias, an advisor should suggest:

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Question 35

Overconfidence bias is most likely to result in:

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Question 36

What is the 'I-knew-it-all-along' phenomenon formally known as?

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Question 37

Which bias involves ignoring information that is complex to process or conflicts with an initial view, often resulting in reacting slowly to new data?

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Question 38

A market participant who sets up a data screen incorrectly to support a preferred belief is exhibiting:

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Question 39

Hyperbolic discounting is a concept associated with which bias?

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Question 40

A company automates employee enrollment in a 401(k) plan, requiring them to opt out if they do not wish to participate. This strategy addresses which bias?

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Question 41

An investor inherits a portfolio of bonds from a parent and refuses to sell them to buy higher-returning equities, citing a desire 'not to lose the money the parent worked hard for'. This is an example of:

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Question 42

Which bias involves putting undue emphasis on information that is readily available or easy to recall?

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Question 43

Which of the following is considered a 'processing error'?

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Question 44

Which of the following is considered a 'belief perseverance' error?

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Question 45

When an investor holds a mix of income-producing and non-income-producing securities that does not match their circumstances because they view income differently from capital appreciation, they are exhibiting:

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Question 46

A key implication of cognitive errors is that they:

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Question 47

Overconfidence is often associated with which other bias?

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Question 48

Which bias can cause market participants to place too much emphasis on events that receive a large amount of media attention?

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Question 49

In the context of the 'disease outbreak' example (Tversky and Kahneman), when the scenario was framed in terms of lives saved (gain), participants tended to be:

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Question 50

Which bias suggests that investors tend to invest heavily in firms in their domestic country?

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