Introduction to Financial Statement Modeling
50 questions available
Key Points
- Top-down: Starts with macro/industry data (GDP, Market Share).
- Bottom-up: Starts with company units (Time-series, Returns-based, Capacity-based).
- Hybrid: Combines both to identify inconsistencies.
- Returns-based is common for banks (loans x interest rate).
Key Points
- Variable costs scale with revenue.
- Fixed costs scale with capacity/PP&E.
- Positive correlation between sales and operating margin indicates economies of scale.
- COGS forecasting usually mirrors gross margin assumptions.
Key Points
- Effective tax rate is used for the Income Statement.
- Cash tax rate is used for Cash Flow.
- Working capital is modeled using efficiency ratios.
- Maintenance capex typically exceeds depreciation in inflationary environments.
Key Points
- Conservatism bias: Under-adjusting from an initial anchor.
- Base-rate neglect: Ignoring the 'outside view' or industry norms.
- Confirmation bias: Undervaluing contradictory evidence.
- Inflation affects volume if demand is price elastic.
Questions
Which financial statement is generally the starting point for financial statement modeling for a manufacturing company?
View answer and explanationWhich approach to revenue modeling begins at the level of the overall economy?
View answer and explanationA 'growth relative to GDP growth' forecast is an example of which modeling approach?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is considered a bottom-up approach to modeling revenue?
View answer and explanationA retailer forecasts revenue by multiplying the number of stores by the average sales per store. This is an example of:
View answer and explanationIf nominal GDP is forecast to grow at 5 percent and a company's revenue is expected to grow 100 basis points faster than GDP, what is the forecast revenue growth rate?
View answer and explanationA company has a 10 percent market share of a total industry with sales of 500 million. If the industry is forecast to grow by 4 percent and the company maintains its market share, what is the revenue forecast for next year?
View answer and explanationNominal GDP growth is composed of:
View answer and explanationIn the context of financial statement modeling, what is the 'hybrid approach'?
View answer and explanationWhich type of cost is typically best modeled as a percentage of revenue?
View answer and explanationHow are fixed costs typically treated in financial models?
View answer and explanationEconomies of scale are typically indicated by which of the following correlations?
View answer and explanationIn Year 1, a company has Sales of 100 and EBIT of 20. In Year 2, Sales rise to 150 and EBIT rises to 45. What does the change in Operating Profit Margin (OPM) suggest?
View answer and explanationForecasting Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) as a percentage of sales is equivalent to forecasting:
View answer and explanationWhich component of Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses is most likely to be variable?
View answer and explanationWhen forecasting financing costs, interest income generally depends on:
View answer and explanationWhich tax rate is calculated as the reported income tax expense divided by pre-tax income?
View answer and explanationWhich tax rate is most relevant for forecasting cash flows?
View answer and explanationA company has Pre-tax Income of 100, reports Tax Expense of 25, and pays Cash Taxes of 17. What is the Cash Tax Rate?
View answer and explanationHow should analysts typically handle 'unusual charges' when forecasting future earnings?
View answer and explanationWhat is 'cannibalization' in the context of revenue modeling?
View answer and explanationNormalized earnings represent:
View answer and explanationMost Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models rely on a perpetuity calculation which assumes:
View answer and explanationWhich balance sheet item typically flows directly from the income statement?
View answer and explanationWorking capital accounts such as inventory are best modeled using:
View answer and explanationIn a sales-based pro forma model, which is typically the first step?
View answer and explanationWhen forecasting Capital Expenditures (Capex), maintenance capex should normally be:
View answer and explanationThe 'Illusion of Control' bias refers to:
View answer and explanationConservatism bias in forecasting is also known as:
View answer and explanationIf an analyst makes a small adjustment to a previous forecast despite significant new information, they are exhibiting:
View answer and explanationBase-rate neglect is a form of which bias?
View answer and explanationUsing an 'outside view' in forecasting means:
View answer and explanationWhich bias is described as the tendency to look for and notice what supports prior beliefs?
View answer and explanationWhat is a suggested method to mitigate confirmation bias?
View answer and explanationAccording to the text, how should government be viewed in a competitive analysis?
View answer and explanationIf a company raises prices by 10 percent and unit volume falls by 5 percent, this implies demand is:
View answer and explanationIn an inflationary environment, what happens if a company raises prices too late?
View answer and explanationIf selling prices increase by 10 percent and input costs increase by 10 percent, while volume remains constant, what happens to the gross profit margin percentage?
View answer and explanationHigh inflation in a company's export market relative to its domestic market generally implies:
View answer and explanationWhich competitive force involves the 'threat of substitute products'?
View answer and explanationWhen using a 'market growth and market share' approach, the forecast for company revenue is:
View answer and explanationWhen analyzing an industry with economies of scale, what is the expected relationship between sales and operating margins?
View answer and explanationWhich forecasting bias is mitigated by 'speaking only with those who are likely to have unique or significant perspectives'?
View answer and explanationWhich method is best for forecasting a bank's revenue?
View answer and explanationIf a company determines its 'Cash Taxes' were 15 million and 'Pre-tax Income' was 60 million, the Cash Tax Rate is:
View answer and explanationDividends are typically modeled based on:
View answer and explanationWhat does a 'time-series' forecast rely on?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is NOT one of Porter's Five Forces mentioned in the text?
View answer and explanationIn the context of balance sheet modeling, 'maintenance capital expenditures' are:
View answer and explanationWhy might a company in a deflationary environment lower prices 'too soon'?
View answer and explanation