Learning Module 6 Industry and Competitive Analysis

50 questions available

Overview and Purpose5 min
Industry and competitive analysis helps analysts understand the structural drivers of an industry’s size, growth, and long-run profitability, and to place a company’s performance and strategy in context. The chapter begins with the need to define the industry—using customer/product perspective—and recognizes practical challenges such as multi-product firms, geographic scope, and changing business models. Third-party classification schemes (GICS, ICB, TRBC) provide a starting point but have limitations: they are hierarchical, assign each firm to a single group, and can mislead when firms operate across multiple industries or geographies. Alternative grouping approaches include geography, cyclical vs defensive classification, statistical clustering, and ESG-based groupings. After defining the industry, analysts conduct an industry survey: estimate market size (usually total annual sales from customer perspective), historical growth rates (and decompose into volume versus price/mix), and industry profitability. Industry profitability is best measured by ROIC distribution over time, but when data are limited analysts use public-company metrics as a proxy. Market shares and trends are computed as company sales divided by market size; monitoring trends and potential acquisitions is vital. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) measures concentration and helps assess regulatory risk for M&A. Industry structure is analyzed using Porter’s Five Forces: threat of new entrants, threat of substitutes, bargaining power of buyers, bargaining power of suppliers, and rivalry among existing competitors. For each force, the analyst should consider entry barriers (economies of scale, network effects, brand loyalty, switching costs, regulatory constraints), substitute performance and switching costs, customer concentration and price sensitivity, supplier concentration and differentiation, and the degree of rivalry driven by product differentiation, number and balance of competitors, exit barriers, and industry growth. To capture external trends shaping growth and competitive dynamics, analysts use PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental) analysis — for example, government energy policy, demographic shifts, tech disruption, environmental regulation. The chapter includes guiding questions and checklists for assessing each force and influence and suggests focusing monitoring efforts on the most relevant items. Competitive strategy analysis assesses whether a company’s strategy defends against industry forces, aligns with external influences, and is backed by resources and capabilities needed to execute. Generic strategies—cost leadership, differentiation, and focus—are described, together with which forces each strategy helps defend against and the primary risks of each approach. Case studies and examples (Warehouse Club Inc., Iliso Marketplace Ltd., Ribbon Energy, Microsoft, Nestlé, IBM, Amazon, etc.) illustrate application: e.g., bottom-up and top-down revenue decomposition; measuring take-rates and GMV for platform marketplaces; fixed vs variable costs, operating leverage and contribution margin; working capital ratios and cash conversion cycle; top-down market share estimation; PESTLE effects such as packaging taxes or carbon transition; degree of operating/financial leverage; capital investments and WACC analysis. The module emphasizes triangulating across approaches, using scenario analysis for key risk factors, and combining historical data with managerial guidance and analyst judgment. It also includes many practical computations: market share percentages, take rates, contribution margin, DOL/DFL, operating profit under scenarios, HHI computations, and sensitivity analysis for cannibalization and pricing power.

Key Points

  • Define industry boundaries carefully; third-party schemes are a starting point but have limits.
  • Use both top-down and bottom-up approaches to size markets and forecast revenue drivers.
  • Measure industry profitability with ROIC distributions; use HHI for concentration.
  • Porter’s Five Forces explains structural drivers of long-run profitability.
  • PESTLE identifies external trends affecting growth and competitive dynamics.
  • Assess if a firm’s strategy defends against industry forces and align with external trends.
  • Use scenario analysis for key risks (e.g., cannibalization, regulation, commodity shocks).
Industry Definition and Classification5 min
Industry definition: Companies selling similar products or services from a customer perspective. Challenges include multi-product firms, substitutes, geography, and changes over time. Third-party classification systems (GICS, ICB, TRBC) are strictly hierarchical and useful for benchmarks and indexes but can misclassify conglomerates or multi-segment firms. Alternative grouping methods include geography, cyclical vs defensive segmentation, clustering by statistical characteristics, and ESG-based groupings. Analysts often adjust classifications or create custom peer sets to reflect the specific competitive set for a firm. Be aware of restatements and group changes over time that affect historical comparability.

Key Points

  • Third-party classifications are hierarchical and assign a company to one group only.
  • Custom peer sets may be necessary for conglomerates and multi-segment firms.
  • Geographic classification by incorporation or listing may not reflect revenue geography.
  • Watch for classification changes over time which affect historical series.
Industry Survey: Size, Growth, Profitability, Market Share5 min
After defining the industry, analysts estimate market size (total annual sales from the customer/product perspective), historical growth rates (annual or CAGR), and decompose growth into volume and price/mix. Industry character: growth (emerging vs mature), and sensitivity to the business cycle (defensive vs cyclical). Industry profitability should be measured over time (ROIC distribution percentiles). Market share trends are evaluated by dividing company sales by market size each year and tracking changes; acquisitions require careful interpretation. Use HHI to measure concentration: sum of squared market shares (expressed in whole numbers) with values above 2,500 considered highly concentrated. Empirical data often come from government sources, industry associations, and company disclosures.

Key Points

  • Market size often requires combining public and private company estimates.
  • Compare industry growth to GDP and identify volume vs price drivers.
  • Profitability trends (instead of cross-sectional snapshot) matter for forecasts.
  • HHI helps detect concentration and potential antitrust risk for M&A.
Porter’s Five Forces and Assessing Industry Structure7 min
Porter’s Five Forces framework assesses long-run industry profitability by evaluating: (1) threat of new entrants (scale, network effects, brand loyalty, regulation); (2) threat of substitutes (relative price-performance and switching costs); (3) bargaining power of customers (concentration, standardization, buyer switching costs); (4) bargaining power of suppliers (concentration, switching costs, differentiation); and (5) rivalry among existing competitors (number and strength of competitors, product differentiation, exit barriers). For each force use checklists and evidence: entry trends, customer loyalty, supplier concentration, standardization of products, pricing patterns, and historical competitive behavior. Identify which forces are strongest and monitor leading indicators.

Key Points

  • A single or a few strong forces can cap industry profitability even if others are benign.
  • Network effects and economies of scale are potent entry barriers.
  • Substitutes and customer bargaining power often determine pricing power.
  • Rivalry increases with many similar competitors and low product differentiation.
PESTLE and External Influences6 min
PESTLE complements Porter’s Five Forces by identifying external drivers of industry growth and structural change: Political (regulation, trade, fiscal policy), Economic (GDP growth, inflation, exchange rates), Social (demographics, cultural trends), Technological (sustaining vs disruptive innovation), Legal (liability, licensing, tax), and Environmental (carbon transition, resource constraints). Assess which external factors are material and whether they are likely to be transitory or structural. Use PESTLE to build scenarios and to identify potential inflection points in market demand, cost structures, and regulatory environments.

Key Points

  • Environmental and legal changes can create structural winners and losers.
  • Technological disruption often originates from new entrants or adjacent sectors.
  • PESTLE drivers shape medium- and long-run growth prospects and should inform strategy assessment.
Competitive Strategy and Positioning5 min
Evaluate whether a company’s strategy creates a defense against industry forces, aligns with external influences (PESTLE), and whether the firm has the resources and capabilities to implement it. Generic strategies include Cost Leadership (scale, low-cost access to inputs), Differentiation (unique product features, brand), and Focus (narrow segment emphasis). Identify risks to each strategy, the fit with industry characteristics (cyclicality, product differentiation), and whether the firm is stuck in the middle. Analyze resource endowments, execution track record, balance sheet, and returns to determine if the company can sustain its strategy.

Key Points

  • Strategy must create barriers or advantages relevant to the dominant forces in the industry.
  • Cost leadership defends against price-sensitive customers; differentiation defends against substitutes.
  • Capability and management execution are critical to sustaining strategy.
Implications for Forecasting and Valuation5 min
Industry and competitive analysis directly informs revenue drivers, pricing power, margins, capital investments, and risk assessment in forecasting and valuation. Use a combination of top-down (market share, market growth relative to GDP) and bottom-up (volume, price per unit, segment sales, capacity metrics) approaches. Identify leading indicators from industry analysis to adjust scenarios. Scenario analysis is essential for assessing outcomes under different industry shifts (e.g., regulatory changes, technology disruption, recession). Avoid over-reliance on a single method; triangulate using DCF, multiples, and asset-based indicators where appropriate.

Key Points

  • Combine industry insights with company-specific drivers for coherent forecasts.
  • Scenarios should reflect plausible changes in the Five Forces and PESTLE factors.
  • Validate model assumptions with industry benchmarks and competitor behavior.

Questions

Question 1

Which of the following is the best definition of an industry for competitive analysis?

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Question 2

What is the primary limitation of strictly hierarchical third-party classification schemes like GICS when analyzing a multi-segment company?

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Question 3

An analyst defines the market size for a retail chain as total national retail sales excluding autos. Which top-down concept is the analyst using when estimating the chain’s potential revenue as a percentage of this market?

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Question 4

Which measure is best suited to compare industry concentration across markets and identify potential antitrust concerns?

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Question 5

Which of the following is NOT one of Porter’s Five Forces?

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Question 6

Which PESTLE category would the introduction of a carbon tax on fossil fuels be classified under?

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Question 7

Which industry attribute is most likely to make an industry 'defensive' rather than cyclical?

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Question 8

A market has four firms with shares of 30%, 30%, 20%, and 20%. What is the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)?

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Question 9

Which factor most directly increases the bargaining power of customers in an industry?

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Question 10

Which of the following is the best evidence of a network effect in an industry?

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Question 11

Which PESTLE category best captures a demographic aging trend that increases demand for healthcare services?

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Question 12

When should an analyst prefer a three-stage DDM over a two-stage DDM?

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Question 13

Which of the following situations makes the Gordon constant-growth DDM most appropriate?

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Question 14

If a preferred stock pays a perpetual fixed dividend of $5 and the required return on preferreds is 6%, what is the estimated fair value using the perpetuity formula?

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Question 15

Which valuation model replaces dividends with an estimate of cash available to equity holders and is preferred when firms do not pay dividends?

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Question 16

An analyst estimates the justified forward P/E using the Gordon framework as P0/E1 = p / (r - g). What does p represent?

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Question 17

Which multiple tends to be more stable across business cycles and is often preferred for cyclical industries when earnings are volatile?

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Question 18

An analyst calculates an industry HHI of 1,600. How would this market typically be classified by competition authorities?

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Question 19

Which of the following would most likely reduce customer bargaining power in an industry?

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Question 20

Which of these is an example of a sustaining technological innovation?

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Question 21

An analyst discovers that a company’s top 3 customers account for 60 percent of its sales. Which Five Force does this observation most directly relate to?

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Question 22

Which analytic step would best detect whether a company’s new store openings are cannibalizing sales of its existing stores?

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Question 23

Which external influence is most likely to cause a structural decline in demand for fossil fuel producers over the next 20 years?

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Question 24

An industry has high fixed costs and largely standardized products. Which generic competitive strategy is most likely to be effective?

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Question 25

When an incumbent enjoys exclusive shelf space arrangements with retailers that limit new entrants’ access to distribution, this barrier most directly affects which force?

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Question 26

Which indicator is most useful as a short-term signal that industry rivalry is intensifying?

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Question 27

An analyst uses total national retail sales as the market size for a warehouse retailer and excludes automobile dealers. Why exclude autos?

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Question 28

Which metric best indicates whether a marketplace platform has pricing power over merchants that sell on the platform?

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Question 29

Which of the following is most likely an indicator of economies of scale for a retail chain?

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Question 30

When using the top-down method, an analyst expresses a company’s revenue as market size times market share. What is the primary judgment the analyst must make?

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Question 31

Which of the following changes is most likely to decrease threat of substitutes in an industry?

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Question 32

A successful differentiation strategy typically does NOT rely on which of the following?

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Question 33

Which statement about the relationship between industry and company effects on profitability is most consistent with the chapter’s summary of McGahan and Porter?

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Question 34

Which metric would best help assess whether a retailer has pricing power over customers?

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Question 35

A firm’s operating costs are largely fixed while its contribution margin per unit is positive. Which of the following is TRUE about its degree of operating leverage (DOL)?

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Question 36

Which of the following is a common empirical sign that an industry has economies of scope?

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Question 37

Which of the following best characterizes a 'defensive' industry in the chapter’s classification?

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Question 38

Which of the following best summarizes why analysts combine top-down and bottom-up revenue approaches?

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Question 39

If an industry is experiencing commoditization, which Five Force is likely increasing in intensity?

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Question 40

Which of the following best describes the PESTLE analysis purpose in industry assessment?

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Question 41

Which of the following is NOT usually a reason management gives for share repurchases?

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Question 42

Suppose an incumbent payment network has effective network effects. Which new-entrant strategy is most likely to succeed in displacing the incumbent?

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Question 43

Which analytic step would best help detect whether an industry’s profitability is structurally declining?

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Question 44

An analyst observes that a company’s days of inventory on hand (DOH) decreased significantly while third-party marketplace sales increased as a share of total GMV. What is the most likely explanation?

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Question 45

Which of the following best explains why analysts examine both top-down and bottom-up revenue analyses together?

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Question 46

Which industry is most likely to exhibit high entry barriers from regulation and licensing according to PESTLE and Porter analysis?

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Question 47

Which of the following would be the best early warning sign for rising supplier bargaining power?

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Question 48

Why might an analyst prefer EV/EBITDA multiples over P/E multiples when comparing firms with different capital structures?

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Question 49

An analyst is using a top-down market-share forecast. Market growth is projected at 3.4% annually and the company has historically added 2 basis points to its market share each year. If the market is $4,165 billion, what is the company’s forecast GMV next year if current market share is 0.21%?

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Question 50

Which action is most consistent with a company pursuing a focus strategy?

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