Learning Module 5 Company Analysis: Past and Present

50 questions available

Overview and Purpose5 min
This chapter explains the structure and content of company research reports, the first step of company analysis (determining the business model), methods to analyze historical financial performance (revenue and drivers, operating profitability, and working capital), and how to analyze capital investments and capital structure. A company research report typically includes front matter (security identifiers, recommendation and target price, disclosures), a recommendation and supporting rationale, company description and business model, industry overview and competitive positioning, financial analysis and model (drivers of revenue, costs, profitability and cash flows), valuation (relative and discounted cash flow approaches), ESG considerations, and a discussion of risks. Initiation reports are more comprehensive and include industry frameworks like Porter’s Five Forces and PESTLE. Subsequent reports focus on updates, comparison of actual results to expectations, and valuation changes. Determining the business model addresses: what the firm sells, its customers and acquisition/delivery channels, pricing and payment structure, and key resources/suppliers/partners. Analysts use issuer sources (annual/quarterly filings, investor presentations, management calls), public third-party sources (government statistics, press, consultancies), proprietary data (Bloomberg, FactSet), and primary research (site visits, surveys). Case study Warehouse Club Inc. is a membership warehouse club that sells a limited SKU assortment, relies on membership fees (recurring, high-margin), operates high-volume bulk sales with low gross margins but leverages membership income and scale efficiencies to produce operating profits, and grows mainly by opening new stores.

Key Points

  • Company research reports structured: front matter, recommendation, company description, industry analysis, financial model, valuation, ESG, risks.
  • Business model analysis: products, customers, channels, pricing, resources/suppliers.
  • Use issuer disclosures, third-party data, proprietary sources, and primary research.
  • Warehouse Club example: membership revenue, low SKU count, scale and cost leadership.
Revenue Analysis: Top-Down and Bottom-Up6 min
Revenue analysis: bottom-up approaches decompose revenue into drivers (e.g., store count × sales per store; members × membership fee) while top-down approaches use market size and market share. Pricing power depends on industry structure, differentiation, switching costs, substitutes, and brand loyalty; margins and ability to pass through cost inflation reveal pricing power. Cost analysis classifies costs by behavior (fixed vs variable), nature, and function. Degree of operating leverage (DOL = %Δ operating income / %Δ sales) measures sensitivity of operating profit to sales changes; degree of financial leverage (DFL = %Δ net income / %Δ operating income) measures sensitivity of net income to operating profit changes. Practical examples illustrate variable vs fixed cost analysis (e.g., oil producer) and DOL computation. Operating profitability measures include gross profit, EBITDA, EBIT, each using functional cost disclosures. Economies of scale (fixed cost dilution) and economies of scope (joint costs across product lines) affect margins. While forecasting revenues, separate recurring vs non-recurring components and use both top-down and bottom-up checks; for marketplaces forecast GMV and take-rate.

Key Points

  • Bottom-up drivers: volumes × prices, store count × sales per store, members × fee.
  • Top-down drivers: market size and market share, GDP-linked growth.
  • Pricing power seen in margin trends and ability to pass-through cost changes.
  • Operating leverage increases sensitivity of profits to sales swings; financial leverage multiplies effect to equity.
  • Use both top-down and bottom-up to cross-check assumptions; separate recurring vs non-recurring revenue.
Operating Profitability and Working Capital6 min
Cost of sales (COGS) is often the largest operating cost and is forecasted via gross margins or by decomposing input costs and volume. SG&A often contains both fixed and variable components; segmentation and functional disclosures help but may be limited. Analysts must reconcile margins with product mix, economies of scale, and share gains/losses. Working capital forecasts use efficiency ratios—DSO, DOH, DPO and cash conversion cycle—combined with revenue and cost forecasts to project AR, inventory, AP, and NWC/sales. Example Warehouse Club shows negative net working capital (suppliers finance inventory), short cash conversion cycle, stable margins at low absolute levels, and membership fees supporting profitability despite low net sales margin. For marketplace businesses like Iliso, separate retail sales (gross) from third-party GMV (net) and model take rate and fulfillment costs.

Key Points

  • COGS forecasting critical for margins; check input cost pass-through and hedging.
  • SG&A: mix of fixed (G&A, R&D) and variable (commissions); model accordingly.
  • Working capital uses efficiency ratios and links to revenue and cost forecasts.
  • Retail vs marketplace revenues: model gross retail sales and net take-rates for marketplace GMV.
  • Case studies illuminate real ratio patterns: short CCC, negative NWC, membership fees as stable revenue.
Capital Investments, Capital Structure, and Returns5 min
Analyze sources and uses of capital (operations, debt, equity issuance, capex, dividends, buybacks, acquisitions). Break capex into maintenance (often proxied by depreciation) and growth capex (strategy-driven store openings, fulfillment centers). Evaluate capital structure using leverage and coverage ratios, net debt to EBITDA, interest coverage, and credit ratings. Returns on invested capital (ROIC) compared to WACC indicate value creation; counterfactual or ex-cash ROIC may show hidden efficiencies. Use equity multipliers and DuPont decompositions to understand ROE drivers. Consider counterfactuals (excess cash deployed) and examine management preferences for conservative vs leveraged structures. Forecast gross debt by applying target debt/EBITDA to forecasted EBITDA or align debt policy with covenants and payout plans.

Key Points

  • Maintenance capex often proxied by depreciation; growth capex tied to expansion plans.
  • Leverage and coverage ratios and debt to EBITDA used to assess capital structure risk.
  • Compare ROIC to WACC to assess value creation; adjust for cash holdings to view operating efficiency.
  • Forecast gross debt by applying target debt/EBITDA to projected EBITDA or by modeling free cash flow and payouts.
  • Management guidance and historic behavior inform capital return policies and leverage targets.
Forecasting Principles and Scenario Analysis6 min
Forecast objects: drivers of lines (preferred for explanatory value), individual lines, summary measures (efficient but opaque), and ad hoc objects (e.g., litigation reserves). Forecast approaches: historical results, historical base rates and convergence (peer-based), management guidance, and analyst discretionary judgment. Choose horizon based on investment mandate, cyclicality, and company profile. Forecast revenues using top-down (GDP, market share) or bottom-up (volumes × price) objects; separate recurring vs one-off items. Forecast operating costs coherently with revenue forecasts; decompose fixed vs variable where possible. Working capital uses efficiency ratios. Capex forecasts split maintenance (linked to depreciation) and growth (strategy). Capital structure: model target leverage or implied borrowing needs from capex and payouts. Use scenario analysis to construct bull, base, and bear cases; quantify impacts and probabilities for key risks (competition, cyclical downturns, inflation, technology disruption). Example: tablet adoption cannibalizing PC market—compute units lost, revenue impact, fixed/variable cost shares, and resulting EPS under scenarios. Scenario analysis supports valuation sensitivity and risk-weighted recommendations.

Key Points

  • Prefer driver-based forecasts for explainability; summary measures for efficiency.
  • Four forecasting approaches: historical, convergence to base rates, management guidance, analyst discretion.
  • Separate maintenance vs growth capex; link maintenance to depreciation.
  • Scenario analysis quantifies key risks and their effects on revenue, margins, and EPS.
  • Validate forecasts with top-down checks and management disclosures where available.

Questions

Question 1

Which two elements are typically included on the front matter of an initial company research report?

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Question 2

Which source is least likely to be an issuer-provided source used to determine a company's business model?

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Question 3

Warehouse Club Inc. sells its goods primarily through stores and requires customers to purchase an annual membership to shop. Which revenue driver decomposition is most logical for forecasting its net sales?

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Question 4

In a bottom-up revenue decomposition, which pair is the canonical volume and price drivers?

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Question 5

Which method is best to detect whether a retailer's reported sales growth is due to more stores or higher sales per store?

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Question 6

Which of the following best describes 'pricing power' in the context of company analysis?

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Question 7

For an issuer with mostly fixed operating costs and a positive contribution margin, what does a high degree of operating leverage imply?

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Question 8

Which ratio is the most direct measure of how long a company holds inventory before sale?

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Question 9

In Warehouse Club Inc.'s case study, membership fees account for a substantial share of operating profit. Which implication does this have for forecasting?

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Question 10

Which of the following is NOT a common method to estimate an issuer's industry size when many competitors are private?

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Question 11

Which concentration metric is calculated as the sum of the squares of competitor market shares and is commonly used by regulators?

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Question 12

In Porter’s Five Forces, which force assesses whether customers can force prices down or demand higher quality or services?

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Question 13

Which PESTLE factor would best capture government regulation imposing a minimum wage increase that materially raises store-level payroll costs?

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Question 14

A firm with the ability to charge premium prices because its customers strongly value distinct product features is pursuing which competitive strategy?

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Question 15

When forecasting gross margin for a commodity-sensitive manufacturer that has no hedging policy, which approach is most appropriate?

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Question 16

Which operating-cost classification is most useful for measuring operating leverage?

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Question 17

If a retailer has negative net working capital (current liabilities exceed current assets) and strong operating cash flow, what is the most likely implication?

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Question 18

Which metric is most appropriate to use when comparing company returns to the market’s required return on capital?

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Question 19

When forecasting maintenance capital expenditures (capex) for a manufacturing company, which proxy is most commonly used in practice?

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Question 20

Which of the following best describes a reasonable way to forecast a marketplace platform’s revenue?

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Question 21

Which scenario-analysis step is most important after building base-case financial forecasts?

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Question 22

When would an analyst prefer using a historical base-rate and convergence approach to forecast a firm's margins?

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Question 23

Which of the following best describes the difference between maintenance and growth capital expenditures?

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Question 24

An analyst computes DOL as 1.96 for a company. Which interpretation is most accurate?

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Question 25

Which statement best explains why analysts split revenues into recurring and non-recurring components?

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Question 26

Which item on the income statement is most commonly used as a starting point to estimate a company's maintenance capital expenditure?

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Question 27

An analyst sees an issuer's DCF valuation implying a required cost of equity markedly higher than the company's stated WACC. Which conclusion is most defensible?

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Question 28

Which combination of data is required to compute a company’s price-to-book ratio?

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Question 29

If a company increases debt to repurchase equity and return capital to shareholders, what immediate effect does this have on ROE, assuming operating profit and interest rates are unchanged?

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Question 30

Which statement most accurately describes the advantage of forecasting using drivers rather than only line-item history?

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Question 31

Which of the following items is most likely to be modeled as a summary measure instead of a detailed line-item forecast?

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Question 32

When reviewing a company with significant private-label sales sourced from contract manufacturers, which supplier-related risk is most relevant?

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Question 33

An analyst uses a peer average gross margin as a forecast for a target company that is a discount, high-volume retailer. Which critique is most valid?

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Question 34

Which of the following is the best reason to model days payable outstanding (DPO) explicitly in a working capital forecast?

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Question 35

Which of the following is a valid reason an analyst might reduce a retailer's forecasted SG&A percent of sales over time?

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Question 36

Which of the following best justifies the use of scenario analysis for a company in a technology-disrupted industry?

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Question 37

If an analyst forecasts a marketplace's third-party merchant GMV to grow faster than the platform's first-party retail sales, what's an important margin implication to check?

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Question 38

Which of the following is the primary reason an analyst would adjust reported net income to compute economic free cash flow?

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Question 39

Which of these items would you expect to be more reliable from management guidance for a company with strong internal control and historical accurate disclosures?

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Question 40

Which analytical step helps verify a bottom-up revenue forecast?

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Question 41

When is it most appropriate to use a company's historical DSO, DOH, and DPO as forecasts for future periods?

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Question 42

Which factor most reduces an analyst's confidence in management guidance?

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Question 43

Which of the following is a common limitation of third-party industry classification schemes (GICS, ICB, TRBC)?

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Question 44

Which single metric best captures short-term liquidity available from operating activities, excluding financing?

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Question 45

Which change would most likely lead to an increase in a mature retailer’s price-to-book ratio, all else equal?

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Question 46

Which of the following is a defensible way to incorporate management guidance into an analyst's forecasts?

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Question 47

Which of the following best describes why an analyst might compute counterfactual ROIC excluding cash balances (ROIC ex cash)?

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Question 48

Which of the following is the correct definition of the cash conversion cycle (CCC)?

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Question 49

Which statement about using depreciation as a proxy for maintenance capex is most accurate?

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Question 50

An analyst building scenarios for technology disruption should primarily vary which elements across bull, base, and bear cases?

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