Learning Module 5 Company Analysis: Past and Present
50 questions available
Key Points
- Company research reports structured: front matter, recommendation, company description, industry analysis, financial model, valuation, ESG, risks.
- Business model analysis: products, customers, channels, pricing, resources/suppliers.
- Use issuer disclosures, third-party data, proprietary sources, and primary research.
- Warehouse Club example: membership revenue, low SKU count, scale and cost leadership.
Key Points
- Bottom-up drivers: volumes × prices, store count × sales per store, members × fee.
- Top-down drivers: market size and market share, GDP-linked growth.
- Pricing power seen in margin trends and ability to pass-through cost changes.
- Operating leverage increases sensitivity of profits to sales swings; financial leverage multiplies effect to equity.
- Use both top-down and bottom-up to cross-check assumptions; separate recurring vs non-recurring revenue.
Key Points
- COGS forecasting critical for margins; check input cost pass-through and hedging.
- SG&A: mix of fixed (G&A, R&D) and variable (commissions); model accordingly.
- Working capital uses efficiency ratios and links to revenue and cost forecasts.
- Retail vs marketplace revenues: model gross retail sales and net take-rates for marketplace GMV.
- Case studies illuminate real ratio patterns: short CCC, negative NWC, membership fees as stable revenue.
Key Points
- Maintenance capex often proxied by depreciation; growth capex tied to expansion plans.
- Leverage and coverage ratios and debt to EBITDA used to assess capital structure risk.
- Compare ROIC to WACC to assess value creation; adjust for cash holdings to view operating efficiency.
- Forecast gross debt by applying target debt/EBITDA to projected EBITDA or by modeling free cash flow and payouts.
- Management guidance and historic behavior inform capital return policies and leverage targets.
Key Points
- Prefer driver-based forecasts for explainability; summary measures for efficiency.
- Four forecasting approaches: historical, convergence to base rates, management guidance, analyst discretion.
- Separate maintenance vs growth capex; link maintenance to depreciation.
- Scenario analysis quantifies key risks and their effects on revenue, margins, and EPS.
- Validate forecasts with top-down checks and management disclosures where available.
Questions
Which two elements are typically included on the front matter of an initial company research report?
View answer and explanationWhich source is least likely to be an issuer-provided source used to determine a company's business model?
View answer and explanationWarehouse Club Inc. sells its goods primarily through stores and requires customers to purchase an annual membership to shop. Which revenue driver decomposition is most logical for forecasting its net sales?
View answer and explanationIn a bottom-up revenue decomposition, which pair is the canonical volume and price drivers?
View answer and explanationWhich method is best to detect whether a retailer's reported sales growth is due to more stores or higher sales per store?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes 'pricing power' in the context of company analysis?
View answer and explanationFor an issuer with mostly fixed operating costs and a positive contribution margin, what does a high degree of operating leverage imply?
View answer and explanationWhich ratio is the most direct measure of how long a company holds inventory before sale?
View answer and explanationIn Warehouse Club Inc.'s case study, membership fees account for a substantial share of operating profit. Which implication does this have for forecasting?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is NOT a common method to estimate an issuer's industry size when many competitors are private?
View answer and explanationWhich concentration metric is calculated as the sum of the squares of competitor market shares and is commonly used by regulators?
View answer and explanationIn Porter’s Five Forces, which force assesses whether customers can force prices down or demand higher quality or services?
View answer and explanationWhich PESTLE factor would best capture government regulation imposing a minimum wage increase that materially raises store-level payroll costs?
View answer and explanationA firm with the ability to charge premium prices because its customers strongly value distinct product features is pursuing which competitive strategy?
View answer and explanationWhen forecasting gross margin for a commodity-sensitive manufacturer that has no hedging policy, which approach is most appropriate?
View answer and explanationWhich operating-cost classification is most useful for measuring operating leverage?
View answer and explanationIf a retailer has negative net working capital (current liabilities exceed current assets) and strong operating cash flow, what is the most likely implication?
View answer and explanationWhich metric is most appropriate to use when comparing company returns to the market’s required return on capital?
View answer and explanationWhen forecasting maintenance capital expenditures (capex) for a manufacturing company, which proxy is most commonly used in practice?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes a reasonable way to forecast a marketplace platform’s revenue?
View answer and explanationWhich scenario-analysis step is most important after building base-case financial forecasts?
View answer and explanationWhen would an analyst prefer using a historical base-rate and convergence approach to forecast a firm's margins?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes the difference between maintenance and growth capital expenditures?
View answer and explanationAn analyst computes DOL as 1.96 for a company. Which interpretation is most accurate?
View answer and explanationWhich statement best explains why analysts split revenues into recurring and non-recurring components?
View answer and explanationWhich item on the income statement is most commonly used as a starting point to estimate a company's maintenance capital expenditure?
View answer and explanationAn analyst sees an issuer's DCF valuation implying a required cost of equity markedly higher than the company's stated WACC. Which conclusion is most defensible?
View answer and explanationWhich combination of data is required to compute a company’s price-to-book ratio?
View answer and explanationIf a company increases debt to repurchase equity and return capital to shareholders, what immediate effect does this have on ROE, assuming operating profit and interest rates are unchanged?
View answer and explanationWhich statement most accurately describes the advantage of forecasting using drivers rather than only line-item history?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following items is most likely to be modeled as a summary measure instead of a detailed line-item forecast?
View answer and explanationWhen reviewing a company with significant private-label sales sourced from contract manufacturers, which supplier-related risk is most relevant?
View answer and explanationAn analyst uses a peer average gross margin as a forecast for a target company that is a discount, high-volume retailer. Which critique is most valid?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is the best reason to model days payable outstanding (DPO) explicitly in a working capital forecast?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a valid reason an analyst might reduce a retailer's forecasted SG&A percent of sales over time?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best justifies the use of scenario analysis for a company in a technology-disrupted industry?
View answer and explanationIf an analyst forecasts a marketplace's third-party merchant GMV to grow faster than the platform's first-party retail sales, what's an important margin implication to check?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is the primary reason an analyst would adjust reported net income to compute economic free cash flow?
View answer and explanationWhich of these items would you expect to be more reliable from management guidance for a company with strong internal control and historical accurate disclosures?
View answer and explanationWhich analytical step helps verify a bottom-up revenue forecast?
View answer and explanationWhen is it most appropriate to use a company's historical DSO, DOH, and DPO as forecasts for future periods?
View answer and explanationWhich factor most reduces an analyst's confidence in management guidance?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a common limitation of third-party industry classification schemes (GICS, ICB, TRBC)?
View answer and explanationWhich single metric best captures short-term liquidity available from operating activities, excluding financing?
View answer and explanationWhich change would most likely lead to an increase in a mature retailer’s price-to-book ratio, all else equal?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a defensible way to incorporate management guidance into an analyst's forecasts?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes why an analyst might compute counterfactual ROIC excluding cash balances (ROIC ex cash)?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is the correct definition of the cash conversion cycle (CCC)?
View answer and explanationWhich statement about using depreciation as a proxy for maintenance capex is most accurate?
View answer and explanationAn analyst building scenarios for technology disruption should primarily vary which elements across bull, base, and bear cases?
View answer and explanation