Understanding Business Cycles

50 questions available

Overview and Types of Business Cycles5 min
Business cycles represent the ups and downs of a country's overall economy, characterized by phases of growth and decline that occur across different sectors simultaneously. These cycles are recurrent but not periodic, meaning they repeat but not at fixed intervals. Three specific types of cycles are defined: the Classical Cycle, referring to levels of economic activity like GDP volume; the Growth Cycle, measuring activity against a trend line; and the Growth Rate Cycle, focusing on the rate of growth. The Growth Cycle tends to identify peaks earlier than the Classical Cycle, while the Growth Rate Cycle avoids the complexity of estimating long-run trends.

Key Points

  • Business cycles occur in business enterprise economies, not agrarian ones.
  • Cycles last from over a year to 10-12 years.
  • Classical Cycle: Level of economic activity (Real GDP).
  • Growth Cycle: Activity relative to trend growth.
  • Growth Rate Cycle: Growth rate of activity.
Phases of the Business Cycle6 min
The cycle is divided into four phases: Recovery, Expansion, Slowdown, and Contraction. Recovery marks the end of a trough where the negative output gap narrows and activity increases. Expansion is an upswing where a positive output gap opens and hiring accelerates. Slowdown occurs as the economy passes its peak; growth remains above average but decelerates, and inflation accelerates. Contraction is marked by a decline in output (often defined as two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP), rising unemployment, and falling inflation (with a lag).

Key Points

  • Recovery: Negative gap narrows, moderate inflation.
  • Expansion: Positive gap opens, hiring increases.
  • Slowdown: Peak activity, inflation accelerates.
  • Contraction: Recession, unemployment rises, safe assets preferred.
Investor Behavior and Credit Cycles5 min
Investors adjust their strategies based on the cycle phase. Recovery and Expansion favor risky assets like stocks and corporate bonds due to rising profit expectations. Slowdown sees riskier asset prices rise alongside inflation fears. Contraction drives a flight to safety in government securities. Credit cycles, tracking credit availability, are generally longer and deeper than business cycles. Loose credit can fuel bubbles, while financial frictions can make recessions more severe. Credit cycles are often synchronized with real estate and investment activity.

Key Points

  • Recovery: Risky assets perform well.
  • Contraction: Investors prefer safe assets (government bonds).
  • Credit cycles are longer than business cycles.
  • Financial frictions amplify business cycle fluctuations.
Economic Indicators5 min
Economic indicators are variables that provide insights into the economy's state. They are categorized by timing: Leading indicators (e.g., stock market, building permits) change before the economy does; Coincident indicators (e.g., industrial production) change at the same time; and Lagging indicators (e.g., inflation, inventory-to-sales ratio) change after the economy has shifted. The Diffusion Index aggregates these indicators to show how widespread a change is across the economy, helping analysts distinguish between isolated events and broad economic trends.

Key Points

  • Leading: Stock market, average weekly hours, building permits.
  • Coincident: Industrial production, personal income.
  • Lagging: Inflation, unemployment duration, inventory-to-sales ratio.
  • Diffusion Index measures the breadth of economic changes.

Questions

Question 1

Which of the following best describes the periodicity of business cycles?

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Question 2

Business cycles are most typical of which type of economy?

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Question 3

What is the typical duration of a business cycle as mentioned in the text?

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Question 4

Which type of cycle refers to fluctuations in the level of economic activity, such as GDP in volume terms?

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Question 5

In the context of the Growth Cycle, what does it measure economic activity against?

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Question 6

What is a key advantage of the Growth Rate Cycle approach?

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Question 7

Compared to the Classical view, when are peaks generally reached in a Growth Cycle?

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Question 8

Which phase of the business cycle is characterized by the negative output gap starting to narrow?

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Question 9

During the Recovery phase, how do businesses typically handle labor needs?

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Question 10

What happens to the output gap during the Expansion phase?

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Question 11

How is inflation described during the Slowdown phase?

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Question 12

During which phase does the unemployment rate start to rise?

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Question 13

What is the behavior of inflation during the Contraction phase?

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Question 14

A common definition of a recession mentioned in the text is:

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Question 15

In the Recovery phase, how do asset markets behave?

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Question 16

During the Expansion phase (Boom), what might the central bank do?

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Question 17

What happens to the yields of safe assets like government bonds during the Slowdown phase?

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Question 18

During the Contraction phase, investors prefer which type of assets?

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Question 19

How does the duration of credit cycles generally compare to business cycles?

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Question 20

What is the impact of financial frictions on business cycles?

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Question 21

Recessions accompanied by financial disruptions tend to be:

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Question 22

In the context of economic indicators, how is capital spending described during the Recovery phase?

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Question 23

What happens to the Inventory to Sales Ratio during the Slowdown phase?

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Question 24

Which of the following is considered a 'Leading' economic indicator?

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Question 25

Which of the following is considered a 'Coincident' economic indicator?

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Question 26

Which of the following is considered a 'Lagging' economic indicator?

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Question 27

What does a Diffusion Index primarily measure?

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Question 28

A high value in the Diffusion Index indicates:

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Question 29

Building permits are classified as which type of indicator?

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Question 30

Real personal income is classified as which type of indicator?

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Question 31

The ratio of consumer instalment debt to income is classified as:

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Question 32

During the Expansion phase, how is the activity level described?

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Question 33

In the Slowdown phase, what happens to activity measures?

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Question 34

During which phase do businesses typically first cut hours and eliminate overtime?

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Question 35

What is the behavior of the unemployment rate during the Slowdown phase?

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Question 36

Which phase is described as the 'Boom' phase?

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Question 37

In the 'Classical Cycle' definition, recessions are marked by:

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Question 38

Which cycle definition is closest to how mainstream economists think about business cycles?

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Question 39

Which phase comes immediately after a 'Peak' in the business cycle?

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Question 40

Which phase comes immediately after a 'Trough'?

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Question 41

In the Contraction phase, companies with steady positive cash flows are:

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Question 42

Which phase is characterized by 'Inflation picks up modestly'?

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Question 43

What does the Inventory-to-Sales ratio typically do in the Contraction phase?

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Question 44

Change in unit labor costs is an example of a:

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Question 45

Interest spread (between Long Term and Short Term rates) is a:

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Question 46

In the 'Growth Cycle' definition, what happens to the peaks compared to the Classical view?

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Question 47

Which phase involves 'Positive output gap starts to narrow'?

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Question 48

What serves as a 'leading indicator of the economy' during the Recovery Phase?

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Question 49

In which phase do sales decline slow down?

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Question 50

The Average prime lending rate is a:

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