Exchange Rate Basics and Market Structure5 min
An exchange rate represents the cost of one unit of a base currency in terms of a price currency. Quotes can be direct or indirect depending on the investor's home currency. The real exchange rate provides a measure of relative purchasing power by adjusting the nominal rate by the ratio of the base currency's price level to the price currency's price level. The FX market includes spot transactions for immediate exchange and forward contracts for future dates. Participants are categorized into the sell side (banks) and the buy side (corporations, investors, and governments), who may act as hedgers reducing risk or speculators taking on risk.

Key Points

  • Exchange rate notation: Price Currency / Base Currency.
  • Real Exchange Rate = Nominal Rate x (CPI Base / CPI Price).
  • Spot rates are for immediate delivery; forward rates are for future dates.
  • Sell side consists of banks; buy side includes real money and leveraged accounts.
Calculations: Cross-Rates and Forward Rates7 min
Key calculations involve determining the percentage change in a currency's value. Appreciation of the base currency is a simple percentage change calculation, while analyzing the price currency requires inverting the quotes first. Cross-rates allow for the calculation of an exchange rate between two currencies using a common third currency (usually USD or EUR). Forward rates are often quoted in 'points' added to the spot rate or as a percentage premium/discount. Interest Rate Parity (IRP) defines the relationship between spot rates, forward rates, and interest rate differentials to prevent arbitrage.

Key Points

  • Percentage change = (Ending Rate / Beginning Rate) - 1 for the base currency.
  • Cross-rates are derived by multiplying or dividing two known exchange rates.
  • Forward points are added to the spot rate (scaled by decimal place).
  • Interest Rate Parity: Forward/Spot = (1 + Interest Price) / (1 + Interest Base).
Exchange Rate Regimes6 min
The IMF categorizes regimes based on the degree of control a monetary authority exercises. Countries may adopt another currency (dollarization) or join a monetary union. Countries issuing their own currency may use currency boards (legislated commitment to exchange at a fixed rate), fixed pegs (pegged within a narrow margin), target zones (wider margins), or crawling pegs (periodic adjustments). Floating regimes include managed floats (intervention without a specific target) and independent floats (market-determined rates).

Key Points

  • Currency Boards require full backing of the monetary base with foreign reserves.
  • Crawling pegs adjust periodically, often to offset inflation differentials.
  • Independent floating rates are determined by market supply and demand.
  • Dollarization implies giving up independent monetary policy.
Trade Balance and Economic Approaches5 min
Exchange rate changes affect trade balances. The elasticities approach uses the Marshall-Lerner condition to determine if depreciation reduces a trade deficit. It states that the sum of export and import demand elasticities must exceed 1 (assuming balanced initial trade). The J-curve effect describes a temporary worsening of the trade balance before improvement due to time lags in contract adjustments. The absorption approach asserts that a trade improvement requires an increase in national income relative to domestic expenditure (absorption).

Key Points

  • Marshall-Lerner Condition: w_x * e_x + w_m * (e_m - 1) > 0.
  • J-Curve: Trade balance worsens in the short run due to inelastic demand.
  • Absorption Approach: Balance of Trade = Income - Expenditure (Domestic Absorption).
  • To improve trade balance, savings must increase relative to investment.

Questions

Question 1

In the exchange rate quote 1.45 USD/EUR, which currency is the base currency?

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Question 2

An exchange rate of 1.25 USD/EUR is considered a direct quote from the perspective of an investor in which country?

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Question 3

Which of the following formulas correctly calculates the real exchange rate?

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Question 4

The nominal exchange rate is 1.50 USD/GBP. The US CPI is 110 and the UK CPI is 105. What is the real exchange rate?

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Question 5

If the real exchange rate of a foreign currency increases, what does this imply for the domestic consumer?

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Question 6

For most currencies, when does the exchange of currencies take place for a spot exchange rate?

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Question 7

Which group of participants in the foreign exchange market is primarily referred to as the 'sell side'?

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Question 8

Investment accounts that use derivatives to speculate or hedge are referred to as:

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Question 9

If a firm takes a position in the foreign exchange market to reduce an existing risk, the firm is:

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Question 10

The USD/EUR exchange rate changes from 1.40 to 1.35. The percentage change in the euro is closest to:

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Question 11

The USD/EUR exchange rate changes from 1.40 to 1.35. The percentage appreciation of the USD is closest to:

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Question 12

Given MXN/USD = 10.0 and USD/EUR = 1.50, what is the MXN/EUR cross rate?

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Question 13

Given CHF/USD = 1.80 and NZD/USD = 2.40, what is the CHF/NZD cross rate?

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Question 14

A spot exchange rate is 2.5000. A forward quote of +25 points implies a forward rate of:

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Question 15

The AUD/EUR spot rate is 0.7300. The 120-day forward rate is quoted as -0.1 percent. The forward rate is closest to:

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Question 16

The no-arbitrage condition known as Interest Rate Parity states that the percentage difference between forward and spot rates is approximately equal to:

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Question 17

According to the Interest Rate Parity formula, if the interest rate of the base currency is lower than the interest rate of the price currency, the base currency should trade at a:

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Question 18

The spot rate is 2.00 A/B. The 1-year risk-free rate for currency A is 6 percent and for currency B is 4 percent. The no-arbitrage 1-year forward rate is closest to:

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Question 19

If the forward rate quoted in the market is higher than the rate implied by Interest Rate Parity, an arbitrageur should:

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Question 20

When calculating a forward premium or discount for a 90-day period, how should the annual interest rates be handled?

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Question 21

A country uses the currency of another country as its medium of exchange and cannot have its own monetary policy. This regime is called:

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Question 22

What is a primary characteristic of a Currency Board Arrangement?

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Question 23

In a conventional fixed peg arrangement, the currency is pegged within margins of approximately:

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Question 24

Which exchange rate regime allows for wider fluctuations, such as +/- 2 percent, around a central parity?

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Question 25

A 'passive crawling peg' is typically adjusted periodically to account for:

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Question 26

In a managed floating exchange rate regime, the monetary authority:

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Question 27

Which regime relies on the market to determine the exchange rate, with intervention used only to reduce short-term volatility?

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Question 28

The Elasticities Approach to the balance of payments focuses on:

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Question 29

The Marshall-Lerner condition states that currency depreciation will reduce a trade deficit if:

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Question 30

The J-Curve effect suggests that following a currency depreciation, the trade balance will:

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Question 31

The Absorption Approach expresses the balance of trade (BT) as:

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Question 32

According to the Absorption Approach, for a currency depreciation to improve the balance of trade, national income must increase relative to:

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Question 33

If an economy is operating at full employment, a currency depreciation will improve the trade balance only if:

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Question 34

A USD/EUR exchange rate of 1.320 with a 90-day forward rate of 1.328 indicates that the euro is trading at a:

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Question 35

Which of the following describes a 'buy side' participant in the foreign exchange market?

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Question 36

If the spot rate is 100 JPY/USD and the forward rate is 98 JPY/USD, the USD is trading at a:

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Question 37

In the context of the Elasticities Approach, for which type of goods is demand likely most elastic?

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Question 38

Under the absorption approach, a trade deficit (Imports > Exports) implies that:

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Question 39

If the forward premium on the euro is 2 percent annualized, what is the approximate difference between the interest rates?

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Question 40

Spot rate is 1.40 USD/EUR. Forward points are -50. What is the forward rate?

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Question 41

Which of the following is true regarding 'Active Crawling Pegs'?

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Question 42

What is 'formal dollarization'?

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Question 43

Spot rate is 100. Interest rate in Price Currency is 5 percent. Interest rate in Base Currency is 3 percent. Is the forward rate higher or lower than 100?

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Question 44

If a dealer quotes a bid-ask spread, the ask price is:

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Question 45

Calculate the percent change of the USD against the CAD if the rate goes from 0.95 USD/CAD to 0.98 USD/CAD.

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Question 46

In a currency board, can the monetary authority act as a 'lender of last resort' to domestic banks?

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Question 47

If a country has a trade surplus, it must have a:

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Question 48

Which condition is required for a successful arbitrage profit using the Interest Rate Parity mechanism?

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Question 49

A 'direct' intervention in a Fixed Peg regime involves:

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Question 50

In the quote 1.60 USD/GBP, the GBP is the:

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