Reading 11: Understanding Business Cycles
50 questions available
Key Points
- Four phases: Expansion, Peak, Contraction, Trough.
- Expansion: Rising GDP, employment, investment; imports increase.
- Contraction: Negative GDP growth, rising unemployment, decreasing inflation.
- Inventory-sales ratios typically rise near peaks and fall near troughs.
Key Points
- Firms adjust labor utilization (overtime) before headcount.
- Durable goods spending is highly cyclical; nondurables are stable.
- Housing activity depends on mortgage rates and income-to-cost ratios.
- Domestic GDP growth drives imports; foreign GDP growth drives exports.
Key Points
- Neoclassical: Technology driven, temporary deviations.
- Keynesian: Aggregate demand shifts, sticky wages, government intervention.
- Monetarist: Money supply growth instability causes cycles.
- Austrian: Low interest rates cause malinvestment.
- Real Business Cycle (RBC): External shocks, utility maximization.
Key Points
- Leading indicators: Weekly hours, new orders, stock prices, building permits.
- Coincident indicators: Payrolls, personal income, industrial production.
- Lagging indicators: Unemployment duration, inventory-sales ratio, prime rate.
Key Points
- Frictional: Matching time; Structural: Skills mismatch; Cyclical: Economy-driven.
- Unemployment rate lags the business cycle.
- Cost-push: Decrease in AS, higher prices, lower output.
- Demand-pull: Increase in AD, higher prices, higher output (short-run).
Questions
Which phase of the business cycle is most likely characterized by increasing real GDP and accelerating inflation?
View answer and explanationInventory-sales ratios are most likely to increase above their normal level when:
View answer and explanationWhich category of consumer spending is generally most sensitive to the business cycle?
View answer and explanationAccording to the Neoclassical school, business cycles are primarily driven by:
View answer and explanationWhich school of thought attributes business cycles to 'malinvestment' caused by artificially low interest rates?
View answer and explanationKeynesian economists argue that contractions can persist because:
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is classified as a leading economic indicator?
View answer and explanationThe inventory-sales ratio is considered which type of indicator?
View answer and explanationA person who is unemployed because they are currently transitioning between jobs is experiencing:
View answer and explanationThe unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed persons divided by:
View answer and explanationWhich phenomenon describes a situation where the inflation rate is decreasing but remains positive?
View answer and explanationCost-push inflation is most likely initiated by:
View answer and explanationThe Laspeyres price index is known to have which type of bias?
View answer and explanationWhich price index attempts to address substitution bias by using current consumption weights?
View answer and explanationCore inflation differs from headline inflation because it excludes:
View answer and explanationIf the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases from 150 to 156 over a year, the inflation rate is:
View answer and explanationIn the Monetarist view, recessions are primarily caused by:
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is considered a coincident indicator?
View answer and explanationDuring the contraction phase of a business cycle, inflation typically:
View answer and explanationReal Business Cycle (RBC) theory emphasizes the effect of:
View answer and explanationA decrease in the relative value of a country's currency is most likely to:
View answer and explanationDiscouraged workers are defined as those who:
View answer and explanationWhich unemployment type is considered always present in an economy as workers switch jobs?
View answer and explanationDemand-pull inflation results from:
View answer and explanationThe Fisher index is calculated as the:
View answer and explanationAn increase in the labor force participation rate typically occurs when:
View answer and explanationA rule of thumb for identifying a recession is two consecutive quarters of:
View answer and explanationTypically, firms respond to an unplanned increase in inventory by:
View answer and explanationThe non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is also called the:
View answer and explanationUnit labor costs are defined as the ratio of:
View answer and explanationAt the peak of a business cycle, sales growth begins to slow, leading to:
View answer and explanationWhich economic school recommends that policymakers should not try to counteract business cycles?
View answer and explanationAn initial increase in aggregate demand when the economy is at full employment is most likely to result in:
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is most likely to be a lagging indicator?
View answer and explanationWhich technique adjusts a price index for improvements in product quality?
View answer and explanationThe combination of declining economic output and higher prices is termed:
View answer and explanationIn a cost-push inflation scenario, a decrease in aggregate supply initially leads to:
View answer and explanationCredit cycles are typically associated with:
View answer and explanationIf a country's Consumer Price Index was 100 in the base year and 110 three years later, the real cost of living has:
View answer and explanationHyperinflation is best described as:
View answer and explanationWhich indicator would an analyst most likely use to identify emerging price pressure from producers?
View answer and explanationIn the United States, the 'Agency' that dates recessions is the:
View answer and explanationStructural unemployment arises from:
View answer and explanationUnderemployed persons are defined as those who:
View answer and explanationIf a Calculate Paasche index is 114.43 and the Laspeyres index is 116, the difference is primarily due to:
View answer and explanationGenerally, total factor productivity (TFP) is:
View answer and explanationWhen comparing GDP across countries, analysts should be aware that:
View answer and explanationThe 'participation ratio' is the percentage of the:
View answer and explanationDuring an economic expansion, consumers are most likely to increase spending on:
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is most likely to reduce a country's long-run aggregate supply?
View answer and explanation