Reading 11: Understanding Business Cycles

50 questions available

Business Cycle Phases and Characteristics10 min
The business cycle defines the fluctuations in economic activity through four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Expansions are characterized by increasing real GDP, employment, and spending. Contractions involve declining GDP and rising unemployment. The cycle is recurrent but irregular in duration. Key behaviors include inventory adjustments, where firms reduce production when unplanned inventory accumulates at peaks, and increase it when inventories deplete at troughs.

Key Points

  • Four phases: Expansion, Peak, Contraction, Trough.
  • Expansion: Rising GDP, employment, investment; imports increase.
  • Contraction: Negative GDP growth, rising unemployment, decreasing inflation.
  • Inventory-sales ratios typically rise near peaks and fall near troughs.
Resource Use and Sector Activity10 min
Firms adjust labor and capital utilization based on the cycle. Initially, firms may adjust hours worked rather than hiring or firing. Capital spending fluctuates significantly, especially for durable goods. The housing sector is driven by interest rates and demographics, while the external trade sector is influenced by GDP growth rates and currency values.

Key Points

  • Firms adjust labor utilization (overtime) before headcount.
  • Durable goods spending is highly cyclical; nondurables are stable.
  • Housing activity depends on mortgage rates and income-to-cost ratios.
  • Domestic GDP growth drives imports; foreign GDP growth drives exports.
Business Cycle Theories10 min
Different economic schools offer varying explanations for cycles. Neoclassical economists focus on technology shocks and self-correcting markets. Keynesians emphasize aggregate demand shifts and sticky wages, advocating fiscal intervention. Monetarists focus on money supply stability. Austrian economists blame artificial interest rates, and New Classical economists (RBC) view cycles as efficient market responses to external shocks.

Key Points

  • Neoclassical: Technology driven, temporary deviations.
  • Keynesian: Aggregate demand shifts, sticky wages, government intervention.
  • Monetarist: Money supply growth instability causes cycles.
  • Austrian: Low interest rates cause malinvestment.
  • Real Business Cycle (RBC): External shocks, utility maximization.
Economic Indicators8 min
Indicators are tools to gauge the economy's path. Leading indicators (e.g., stock prices, new orders) signal future changes. Coincident indicators (e.g., industrial production) reflect the current state. Lagging indicators (e.g., unemployment duration, prime rate) confirm past trends. Analysts use composite indexes to identify turning points.

Key Points

  • Leading indicators: Weekly hours, new orders, stock prices, building permits.
  • Coincident indicators: Payrolls, personal income, industrial production.
  • Lagging indicators: Unemployment duration, inventory-sales ratio, prime rate.
Unemployment and Inflation12 min
Unemployment is divided into frictional, structural, and cyclical types. The unemployment rate measures the unemployed percentage of the labor force but can lag due to discouraged workers. Inflation is a persistent price rise. Cost-push inflation results from supply shocks (wage/resource costs), decreasing GDP. Demand-pull inflation results from excess demand, increasing GDP temporarily above potential.

Key Points

  • Frictional: Matching time; Structural: Skills mismatch; Cyclical: Economy-driven.
  • Unemployment rate lags the business cycle.
  • Cost-push: Decrease in AS, higher prices, lower output.
  • Demand-pull: Increase in AD, higher prices, higher output (short-run).

Questions

Question 1

Which phase of the business cycle is most likely characterized by increasing real GDP and accelerating inflation?

View answer and explanation
Question 2

Inventory-sales ratios are most likely to increase above their normal level when:

View answer and explanation
Question 3

Which category of consumer spending is generally most sensitive to the business cycle?

View answer and explanation
Question 4

According to the Neoclassical school, business cycles are primarily driven by:

View answer and explanation
Question 5

Which school of thought attributes business cycles to 'malinvestment' caused by artificially low interest rates?

View answer and explanation
Question 6

Keynesian economists argue that contractions can persist because:

View answer and explanation
Question 7

Which of the following is classified as a leading economic indicator?

View answer and explanation
Question 8

The inventory-sales ratio is considered which type of indicator?

View answer and explanation
Question 9

A person who is unemployed because they are currently transitioning between jobs is experiencing:

View answer and explanation
Question 10

The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed persons divided by:

View answer and explanation
Question 11

Which phenomenon describes a situation where the inflation rate is decreasing but remains positive?

View answer and explanation
Question 12

Cost-push inflation is most likely initiated by:

View answer and explanation
Question 13

The Laspeyres price index is known to have which type of bias?

View answer and explanation
Question 14

Which price index attempts to address substitution bias by using current consumption weights?

View answer and explanation
Question 15

Core inflation differs from headline inflation because it excludes:

View answer and explanation
Question 16

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases from 150 to 156 over a year, the inflation rate is:

View answer and explanation
Question 17

In the Monetarist view, recessions are primarily caused by:

View answer and explanation
Question 18

Which of the following is considered a coincident indicator?

View answer and explanation
Question 19

During the contraction phase of a business cycle, inflation typically:

View answer and explanation
Question 20

Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory emphasizes the effect of:

View answer and explanation
Question 21

A decrease in the relative value of a country's currency is most likely to:

View answer and explanation
Question 22

Discouraged workers are defined as those who:

View answer and explanation
Question 23

Which unemployment type is considered always present in an economy as workers switch jobs?

View answer and explanation
Question 24

Demand-pull inflation results from:

View answer and explanation
Question 25

The Fisher index is calculated as the:

View answer and explanation
Question 26

An increase in the labor force participation rate typically occurs when:

View answer and explanation
Question 27

A rule of thumb for identifying a recession is two consecutive quarters of:

View answer and explanation
Question 28

Typically, firms respond to an unplanned increase in inventory by:

View answer and explanation
Question 29

The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is also called the:

View answer and explanation
Question 30

Unit labor costs are defined as the ratio of:

View answer and explanation
Question 31

At the peak of a business cycle, sales growth begins to slow, leading to:

View answer and explanation
Question 32

Which economic school recommends that policymakers should not try to counteract business cycles?

View answer and explanation
Question 33

An initial increase in aggregate demand when the economy is at full employment is most likely to result in:

View answer and explanation
Question 34

Which of the following is most likely to be a lagging indicator?

View answer and explanation
Question 35

Which technique adjusts a price index for improvements in product quality?

View answer and explanation
Question 36

The combination of declining economic output and higher prices is termed:

View answer and explanation
Question 37

In a cost-push inflation scenario, a decrease in aggregate supply initially leads to:

View answer and explanation
Question 38

Credit cycles are typically associated with:

View answer and explanation
Question 39

If a country's Consumer Price Index was 100 in the base year and 110 three years later, the real cost of living has:

View answer and explanation
Question 40

Hyperinflation is best described as:

View answer and explanation
Question 41

Which indicator would an analyst most likely use to identify emerging price pressure from producers?

View answer and explanation
Question 42

In the United States, the 'Agency' that dates recessions is the:

View answer and explanation
Question 43

Structural unemployment arises from:

View answer and explanation
Question 44

Underemployed persons are defined as those who:

View answer and explanation
Question 45

If a Calculate Paasche index is 114.43 and the Laspeyres index is 116, the difference is primarily due to:

View answer and explanation
Question 46

Generally, total factor productivity (TFP) is:

View answer and explanation
Question 47

When comparing GDP across countries, analysts should be aware that:

View answer and explanation
Question 48

The 'participation ratio' is the percentage of the:

View answer and explanation
Question 49

During an economic expansion, consumers are most likely to increase spending on:

View answer and explanation
Question 50

Which of the following is most likely to reduce a country's long-run aggregate supply?

View answer and explanation