Company Analysis: Forecasting

50 questions available

Forecast Objects, Principles, and Approaches5 min
Forecasting relies on identifying the right objects: Drivers, Lines, Measures, and Ad Hoc events. Analysts should adhere to principles of Regular Disclosure and Simplicity. Four primary approaches are used: Historical Results for stable periods, Base Rates for industry norms, Guidance from management, and Discretionary for unique cases. The horizon must match the strategy and industry cycle.

Key Points

  • Objects: Drivers, Lines, Measures, Ad Hoc.
  • Principles: Regular Disclosure, Simplicity.
  • Approaches: Historical, Base Rates, Guidance, Discretionary.
  • Horizon aligns with strategy and cycles.
Forecasting Revenues5 min
Revenue forecasting splits into Top-Down (macro/market based) and Bottom-Up (volume/price based) methods. Analysts must distinguish between management-disclosed and analyst-judged drivers. It is crucial to exclude non-recurring items like exchange rate effects or one-time events when projecting future trends.

Key Points

  • Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up.
  • Management-Disclosed vs. Analyst-Judged.
  • Exclude non-recurring items.
  • Integrate risk factors (inflation, competition).
Operating Expenses and Capital Structure5 min
Expense forecasts must align with revenue projections (coherence). COGS is often a percentage of sales, while SG&A has fixed components. Capital expenditures are categorized into Maintenance (based on depreciation) and Growth (discretionary). Capital structure forecasts focus on leverage ratios and debt covenants.

Key Points

  • Coherent revenue and cost forecasts.
  • COGS as percent of sales.
  • Maintenance vs. Growth CapEx.
  • Leverage ratios: Debt to Capital, Debt to EBITDA.
Scenario Analysis3 min
Scenario analysis involves six steps: identifying risks, assessing likelihood, generating scenarios, comparing forecasts, assessing valuations, and making decisions. Its purpose is to mitigate risk, support structured decision-making, and assess potential outcomes from an investor perspective.

Key Points

  • 6 Steps: Risks, Likelihood, Scenarios, Compare, Valuations, Decisions.
  • Purpose: Risk Mitigation, Decision Support.
  • Aligns forecasts with market views.

Questions

Question 1

Which of the following is considered a 'Forecast Object' that involves analyzing key factors for accurate financial forecasts?

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Question 2

What does the 'Lines' object refer to in the context of forecasting?

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Question 3

Which forecasting principle suggests avoiding overly complex models and focusing on vital drivers?

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Question 4

Which forecasting approach involves the simple use of past values but is limited for changes?

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Question 5

When would an analyst likely use 'Base Rates' for forecasting?

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Question 6

Which forecasting approach is best described as using various approaches for unique situations?

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Question 7

Which of the following is a factor to consider when determining the forecast horizon?

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Question 8

In 'Top-Down' revenue forecasting, growth is often compared to which metric?

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Question 9

Which drivers are primarily used in 'Bottom-Up' revenue forecasting?

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Question 10

How should non-recurring items be handled in forecasting?

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Question 11

What does 'Analyst-Judged' forecasting involve regarding events like COVID-19?

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Question 12

If a company had revenue of 100 million in Year 1 and 110 million in Year 2, what is the Year-over-Year (YoY) growth rate?

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Question 13

Which of the following is a risk factor integrated into revenue forecasting?

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Question 14

Limited issuer disclosures force analysts to use what kind of forecast objects?

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Question 15

What does 'Coherent Revenue and Cost Forecasts' imply for a low-margin segment growing faster than the rest of the company?

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Question 16

How is Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) typically forecasted?

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Question 17

If a company has Sales of 1,000,000 and the forecasted COGS to Sales ratio is 60 percent, what is the forecasted COGS?

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Question 18

Why might detailed cost analysis by segment or product line be beneficial?

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Question 19

What is the impact of a company's hedging strategy on forecasting?

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Question 20

When cross-checking gross margins with competitors, what must an analyst be mindful of?

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Question 21

How is the relationship between SG&A expenses and revenues described?

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Question 22

Which component of SG&A is typically modeled as a percentage of sales?

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Question 23

How should general corporate costs within SG&A be forecasted?

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Question 24

When using segment-based modeling for SG&A, what is a common limitation?

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Question 25

What is combined with sales and cost forecasts to project working capital?

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Question 26

Which type of Capital Expenditure (CapEx) is required to sustain the business?

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Question 27

Maintenance CapEx is typically based on which historical metric?

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Question 28

Growth CapEx is primarily tied to which of the following?

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Question 29

Depreciation forecasts are based on Net PP&E, intangibles, and what other assumption?

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Question 30

Which of the following is a common Leverage Ratio used in forecasting capital structure?

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Question 31

If a company has Total Debt of 500 million and Total Capital of 1000 million, what is the Debt to Capital ratio?

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Question 32

What is the first step in Scenario Analysis?

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Question 33

In Scenario Analysis, what is done after identifying risks?

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Question 34

Which of the following is a stated purpose of Scenario Analysis?

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Question 35

What does 'Decision Support' entail in the context of Scenario Analysis?

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Question 36

When comparing forecasts in Scenario Analysis, what are they evaluated against?

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Question 37

Which approach to forecasting relies on reliable management-provided targets?

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Question 38

A 'Measure' in forecast objects is described as:

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Question 39

When projecting capital structure, analysts should consider which of the following?

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Question 40

Which efficiency ratio helps in forecasting accounts receivable?

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Question 41

If management plans to expand into a new region, which type of CapEx will likely increase?

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Question 42

Why is 'Regular Disclosure' a forecasting principle?

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Question 43

Which forecasting method for revenues involves using volume and price?

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Question 44

If inflation is high, how should maintenance CapEx be adjusted?

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Question 45

What does 'Ad Hoc' refer to in forecast objects?

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Question 46

Which step follows 'Assess Valuations' in Scenario Analysis?

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Question 47

Why might an analyst exclude the effects of an acquisition when analyzing past performance?

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Question 48

If a company uses a 'Top-Down' approach, what is the starting point?

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Question 49

In forecasting operating expenses, why is coherence important?

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Question 50

Which of the following describes 'Analyst-Judged' forecasting?

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