Company Analysis: Forecasting
50 questions available
Key Points
- Objects: Drivers, Lines, Measures, Ad Hoc.
- Principles: Regular Disclosure, Simplicity.
- Approaches: Historical, Base Rates, Guidance, Discretionary.
- Horizon aligns with strategy and cycles.
Key Points
- Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up.
- Management-Disclosed vs. Analyst-Judged.
- Exclude non-recurring items.
- Integrate risk factors (inflation, competition).
Key Points
- Coherent revenue and cost forecasts.
- COGS as percent of sales.
- Maintenance vs. Growth CapEx.
- Leverage ratios: Debt to Capital, Debt to EBITDA.
Key Points
- 6 Steps: Risks, Likelihood, Scenarios, Compare, Valuations, Decisions.
- Purpose: Risk Mitigation, Decision Support.
- Aligns forecasts with market views.
Questions
Which of the following is considered a 'Forecast Object' that involves analyzing key factors for accurate financial forecasts?
View answer and explanationWhat does the 'Lines' object refer to in the context of forecasting?
View answer and explanationWhich forecasting principle suggests avoiding overly complex models and focusing on vital drivers?
View answer and explanationWhich forecasting approach involves the simple use of past values but is limited for changes?
View answer and explanationWhen would an analyst likely use 'Base Rates' for forecasting?
View answer and explanationWhich forecasting approach is best described as using various approaches for unique situations?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a factor to consider when determining the forecast horizon?
View answer and explanationIn 'Top-Down' revenue forecasting, growth is often compared to which metric?
View answer and explanationWhich drivers are primarily used in 'Bottom-Up' revenue forecasting?
View answer and explanationHow should non-recurring items be handled in forecasting?
View answer and explanationWhat does 'Analyst-Judged' forecasting involve regarding events like COVID-19?
View answer and explanationIf a company had revenue of 100 million in Year 1 and 110 million in Year 2, what is the Year-over-Year (YoY) growth rate?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a risk factor integrated into revenue forecasting?
View answer and explanationLimited issuer disclosures force analysts to use what kind of forecast objects?
View answer and explanationWhat does 'Coherent Revenue and Cost Forecasts' imply for a low-margin segment growing faster than the rest of the company?
View answer and explanationHow is Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) typically forecasted?
View answer and explanationIf a company has Sales of 1,000,000 and the forecasted COGS to Sales ratio is 60 percent, what is the forecasted COGS?
View answer and explanationWhy might detailed cost analysis by segment or product line be beneficial?
View answer and explanationWhat is the impact of a company's hedging strategy on forecasting?
View answer and explanationWhen cross-checking gross margins with competitors, what must an analyst be mindful of?
View answer and explanationHow is the relationship between SG&A expenses and revenues described?
View answer and explanationWhich component of SG&A is typically modeled as a percentage of sales?
View answer and explanationHow should general corporate costs within SG&A be forecasted?
View answer and explanationWhen using segment-based modeling for SG&A, what is a common limitation?
View answer and explanationWhat is combined with sales and cost forecasts to project working capital?
View answer and explanationWhich type of Capital Expenditure (CapEx) is required to sustain the business?
View answer and explanationMaintenance CapEx is typically based on which historical metric?
View answer and explanationGrowth CapEx is primarily tied to which of the following?
View answer and explanationDepreciation forecasts are based on Net PP&E, intangibles, and what other assumption?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a common Leverage Ratio used in forecasting capital structure?
View answer and explanationIf a company has Total Debt of 500 million and Total Capital of 1000 million, what is the Debt to Capital ratio?
View answer and explanationWhat is the first step in Scenario Analysis?
View answer and explanationIn Scenario Analysis, what is done after identifying risks?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a stated purpose of Scenario Analysis?
View answer and explanationWhat does 'Decision Support' entail in the context of Scenario Analysis?
View answer and explanationWhen comparing forecasts in Scenario Analysis, what are they evaluated against?
View answer and explanationWhich approach to forecasting relies on reliable management-provided targets?
View answer and explanationA 'Measure' in forecast objects is described as:
View answer and explanationWhen projecting capital structure, analysts should consider which of the following?
View answer and explanationWhich efficiency ratio helps in forecasting accounts receivable?
View answer and explanationIf management plans to expand into a new region, which type of CapEx will likely increase?
View answer and explanationWhy is 'Regular Disclosure' a forecasting principle?
View answer and explanationWhich forecasting method for revenues involves using volume and price?
View answer and explanationIf inflation is high, how should maintenance CapEx be adjusted?
View answer and explanationWhat does 'Ad Hoc' refer to in forecast objects?
View answer and explanationWhich step follows 'Assess Valuations' in Scenario Analysis?
View answer and explanationWhy might an analyst exclude the effects of an acquisition when analyzing past performance?
View answer and explanationIf a company uses a 'Top-Down' approach, what is the starting point?
View answer and explanationIn forecasting operating expenses, why is coherence important?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following describes 'Analyst-Judged' forecasting?
View answer and explanation