Learning Module 8 Exchange Rate Calculations

50 questions available

Cross-Rate Construction and Quoting Conventions5 min
This chapter explains how to calculate exchange rate cross-rates and how forward exchange rates relate to spot rates and interest rates through arbitrage relationships. Cross-rates: Given two exchange rates involving three currencies, you can derive the third by algebraic cancellation. When currency A/B and B/C are known, A/C equals (A/B) times (B/C) after appropriate inversions so that the intermediary currency cancels. The professional FX market uses standard quoting conventions (for example USD/EUR, CAD/USD, JPY/USD) and often requires inverting a quoted pair to form a cross-rate. Yen rates are typically quoted with two decimals; most other major pairs use four decimals. Market efficiencies and high-frequency trading make mispriced cross-rates rare; if inconsistent cross rates are quoted, triangular arbitrage (buy low, sell high across three pairs) will quickly remove the discrepancy. Forward quotes and points: Forward exchange rates are usually displayed as forward points (pips), the difference between the forward and spot rates scaled to match the last decimal place of the spot quote (multiply by 10,000 for four-decimal pairs and by 100 for yen-style two-decimal pairs). A positive forward points value (forward > spot) means the base currency trades at a forward premium; a negative value indicates a forward discount. Forward points generally increase in absolute terms with maturity and with the size of interest rate differentials. Converting forward points to a forward rate requires dividing the quoted points by the scaling factor and adding to the spot rate; conversely, a quoted forward rate can be expressed as points by subtracting spot and scaling. Percentage representation of forward premia/discounts is calculated as (F/S) - 1, where F is forward and S is spot.

Key Points

  • Cross-rates are computed by multiplying two rates and inverting as needed so intermediary currency cancels.
  • Standard market conventions mean many quotes are USD-based; yen quotes use two decimals.
  • Forward points are scaled differences (pips) between forward and spot; scale is 10,000 for 4-decimal pairs, 100 for yen-style pairs.
  • Positive points => base currency forward premium; negative => forward discount.
Covered Interest Parity and Forward Rate Formula5 min
This chapter explains how to calculate exchange rate cross-rates and how forward exchange rates relate to spot rates and interest rates through arbitrage relationships. Cross-rates: Given two exchange rates involving three currencies, you can derive the third by algebraic cancellation. When currency A/B and B/C are known, A/C equals (A/B) times (B/C) after appropriate inversions so that the intermediary currency cancels. The professional FX market uses standard quoting conventions (for example USD/EUR, CAD/USD, JPY/USD) and often requires inverting a quoted pair to form a cross-rate. Yen rates are typically quoted with two decimals; most other major pairs use four decimals. Market efficiencies and high-frequency trading make mispriced cross-rates rare; if inconsistent cross rates are quoted, triangular arbitrage (buy low, sell high across three pairs) will quickly remove the discrepancy. Forward quotes and points: Forward exchange rates are usually displayed as forward points (pips), the difference between the forward and spot rates scaled to match the last decimal place of the spot quote (multiply by 10,000 for four-decimal pairs and by 100 for yen-style two-decimal pairs). A positive forward points value (forward > spot) means the base currency trades at a forward premium; a negative value indicates a forward discount. Forward points generally increase in absolute terms with maturity and with the size of interest rate differentials. Converting forward points to a forward rate requires dividing the quoted points by the scaling factor and adding to the spot rate; conversely, a quoted forward rate can be expressed as points by subtracting spot and scaling. Percentage representation of forward premia/discounts is calculated as (F/S) - 1, where F is forward and S is spot.

Key Points

  • Covered interest parity equates domestic deposit returns to hedged foreign deposit returns.
  • Forward rate formula: F_f/d = S_f/d * ((1 + r_f) / (1 + r_d)) for whole-period rates.
  • For short maturities use fractional term tau: (1 + r * tau) with correct day count.
  • Currency with higher interest rate will trade at forward discount (after careful attention to quote convention).
Practical Forward Calculations and Interpretation5 min
This chapter explains how to calculate exchange rate cross-rates and how forward exchange rates relate to spot rates and interest rates through arbitrage relationships. Cross-rates: Given two exchange rates involving three currencies, you can derive the third by algebraic cancellation. When currency A/B and B/C are known, A/C equals (A/B) times (B/C) after appropriate inversions so that the intermediary currency cancels. The professional FX market uses standard quoting conventions (for example USD/EUR, CAD/USD, JPY/USD) and often requires inverting a quoted pair to form a cross-rate. Yen rates are typically quoted with two decimals; most other major pairs use four decimals. Market efficiencies and high-frequency trading make mispriced cross-rates rare; if inconsistent cross rates are quoted, triangular arbitrage (buy low, sell high across three pairs) will quickly remove the discrepancy. Forward quotes and points: Forward exchange rates are usually displayed as forward points (pips), the difference between the forward and spot rates scaled to match the last decimal place of the spot quote (multiply by 10,000 for four-decimal pairs and by 100 for yen-style two-decimal pairs). A positive forward points value (forward > spot) means the base currency trades at a forward premium; a negative value indicates a forward discount. Forward points generally increase in absolute terms with maturity and with the size of interest rate differentials. Converting forward points to a forward rate requires dividing the quoted points by the scaling factor and adding to the spot rate; conversely, a quoted forward rate can be expressed as points by subtracting spot and scaling. Percentage representation of forward premia/discounts is calculated as (F/S) - 1, where F is forward and S is spot.

Key Points

  • Use day-count conventions (e.g., actual/360) when computing tau for Libor-style rates.
  • Forward points scale with both maturity and interest rate differentials; doubling differential roughly doubles points.
  • Triangular arbitrage profit equals mispricing times transaction size (ignoring costs).
  • Forward rates are set to eliminate riskless arbitrage; they should not be relied on as accurate point forecasts of future spot rates.

Questions

Question 1

Given USD/EUR = 1.2500 and CAD/USD = 0.8000, what is the CAD/EUR cross-rate?

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Question 2

If USD/JPY = 110.00 and CAD/USD = 1.3000, what is JPY/CAD (yen per Canadian dollar)?

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Question 3

A dealer quotes EUR/GBP spot = 0.8600 and GBP/USD spot = 1.3000. What is USD/EUR (US dollar per euro)?

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Question 4

Spot USD/EUR = 1.15885 and three-month forward points are +80.9 (points scaled to 10,000). What is the three-month forward USD/EUR rate?

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Question 5

Spot GBP/EUR = 0.8920 and expected one-year spot is 0.8893. What is the approximate percentage change in GBP versus EUR (unannualized)?

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Question 6

Spot USD/EUR increases from 1.1500 to 1.2000. What is the percent appreciation of the euro against the US dollar (expressed from USD/EUR quote perspective)?

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Question 7

If USD/CHF spot = 0.9900 and expected one-year USD/CHF = 0.9866, does the Swiss franc appreciate or depreciate versus the US dollar over the year?

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Question 8

Given spot S_f/d = 1.6535, domestic one-year rate rd = 3.50% and foreign one-year rate rf = 5.00%, what is the one-year forward F_f/d using exact covered interest parity?

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Question 9

A dealer quotes GBP/EUR spot = 0.8752 and one-month forward points = -1.4. What is the one-month forward rate (GBP/EUR)?

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Question 10

If a 12-month forward on GBP/EUR is 0.87295 and spot is 0.87520, what are the 12-month forward points (scaled to 10,000)?

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Question 11

With spot S = 1.6555, domestic annual rd = 2.00%, foreign annual rf = 3.00%, and using actual/360 day count, what is the 30-day forward approximately (use tau = 30/360)?

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Question 12

Using the same inputs as previous question but with a 180-day forward (tau = 180/360), what is the approximate forward points (F - S) in absolute terms?

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Question 13

If the interest rate in the price currency country is higher than the interest rate in the base currency country, which is true for the forward price of the base currency?

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Question 14

A quoted EUR/USD spot = 1.1701 and USD/GBP spot = 1.3118. What is GBP/EUR (pounds per euro)?

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Question 15

You compute JPY/CAD = 85.97 from USD/CAD = 1.3020 and JPY/USD = 111.94 by inverting CAD/USD. If another dealer quotes JPY/CAD = 86.20, what is the arbitrage profit per CAD1 if you buy CAD at your computed rate and sell at dealer's quote, ignoring costs?

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Question 16

If EUR/USD spot = 1.15885 and 12-month forward is 1.19532, what are the forward points scaled to 10,000?

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Question 17

For short maturities, the forward points are approximately proportional to which of the following?

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Question 18

An investor can invest 1 unit of domestic currency at rd or convert to foreign at spot S_f/d, invest at rf and sell forward at F_f/d. Under covered interest parity which equality must hold (for convention f/d)?

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Question 19

If spot BRL/MXN = 0.1378 and six-month forward = 0.14193, what are the six-month forward points (scaled to 10,000)?

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Question 20

A three-month forward in CAD/USD is 1.0123 and dealer quotes three-month forward points as a percentage at 6.8 percent. What is the spot CAD/USD?

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Question 21

If the base currency in a forward quote is trading at a forward discount, which statement is true about the forward percentage?

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Question 22

Which of these best explains why forward rates typically cannot be relied upon as accurate point forecasts of future spot rates?

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Question 23

You observe GBP/EUR spot = 0.9000 and one-month forward points quoted as -1.8. Which currency is trading at a forward discount, and why?

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Question 24

Given EUR/USD spot = 1.15885 and three-month forward points +80.9, what is the three-month forward as a percent premium over spot? (Compute (F/S) - 1 as percent.)

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Question 25

A bank quotes MXN/USD spot = 18.8590. What is the USD/MXN (US dollars per peso) reciprocal to four decimal places?

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Question 26

If CAD/USD spot = 1.3020 and USD/JPY = 111.94, compute JPY/CAD (yen per Canadian dollar) using inversion where needed.

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Question 27

A trader finds USD/CHF spot = 0.9900 and EUR/USD spot = 1.1701 and CHF/USD expected to go to 0.9866 in a year. Without computing detailed rates, which currency is expected strongest to weakest over next year among USD, GBP, EUR given USD/EUR declines and USD/GBP declines?

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Question 28

Suppose F_f/d is quoted incorrectly high relative to CIP. An arbitrageur can realize riskless profit by doing which sequence (assume f/d quoting)?

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Question 29

Given spot S = 0.8489 GBP/EUR, 270-day Libor rates r_GBP = 1.325% and r_EUR = 1.370%, compute approximate 270-day forward points (scaled to 10,000). Use actual/360 with tau = 270/360.

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Question 30

If an FX quote lists JPY/EUR = 130.98 (yen per euro) quoted to two decimals, and a forward point is +25 in yen-style pips, what absolute forward amount should be added to the spot?

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Question 31

Which operation is necessary when computing a cross-rate if the intermediary quote is CAD/USD but you need USD/CAD to cancel USD in a formula?

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Question 32

A dealer quotes forward points to one decimal place (e.g., +364.7). Why might forward points be shown with more precision than spot?

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Question 33

If F_f/d / S_f/d = (1 + r_f) / (1 + r_d), rearranging gives the expected percentage change in spot if forward equals expected future spot: %Delta S = (r_f - r_d) / (1 + r_d). If r_f = 5% and r_d = 3.5%, what is %Delta S approximately?

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Question 34

A client wants to lock in receipt of GBP50 million in 32 days. Dealer provides spot GBP/EUR = 0.8752 and one-month forward points -1.4. To hedge, the client should:

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Question 35

If a second dealer offers a 12-month forward discount of 0.30% on the same spot as another dealer who quotes F = 0.87295 GBP/EUR, how could you arbitrage the two dealer forward quotes?

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Question 36

You observe three interbank quotes: CNY/HKD = 0.8422, CNY/ZAR = 0.9149, and CNY/SEK = 1.0218. What is ZAR/HKD (South African rand per Hong Kong dollar)?

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Question 37

Using the previous question's quotes, a second dealer quotes ZAR/SEK = 1.1210 while you compute 1.1168. If you trade SEK1,000,000, what is your arbitrage profit in ZAR (ignoring costs)?

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Question 38

A dealer lists CAD/USD three-month forward = 1.0123 and states forward points as 6.8 percent. How is that 6.8 percent interpreted in relation to the spot rate?

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Question 39

Which of the following statements about forward points is correct?

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Question 40

If spot S_f/d=2.0000, rd = 1% (annual), rf = 4% (annual), and you use tau = 90/360, compute approximate forward premium in absolute terms (F - S).

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Question 41

When converting forward points quoted in pips back to a forward rate for a yen-style quote (two decimal places), which divisor should be used?

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Question 42

A cross-rate inconsistency exists that yields a small arbitrage. Why are such opportunities rare and short-lived in real FX markets?

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Question 43

Which of the following is a correct statement concerning quoting conventions in the professional FX market?

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Question 44

If spot EUR/CHF = 1.1584 and expected one-year EUR/CHF = 1.1463, what is the direction of CHF movement relative to EUR?

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Question 45

A forward points quote for USD/EUR is +175.6 for six months and +364.7 for 12 months. What explains the larger absolute points at longer maturity?

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Question 46

If you have three exchange rates and need a fourth cross-rate, which of the following is true in general?

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Question 47

A trader converts USD 1,000,000 to CAD at spot CAD/USD = 1.3000, invests CAD at CAD Libor and hedges by selling CAD forward for USD at the forward rate. This combined transaction is known as:

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Question 48

Which day count convention is commonly used for short-term Libor-like rates in forward calculations in the examples of this chapter?

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Question 49

Which of the following best summarizes covered interest parity's practical implication for forward rates?

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Question 50

Which practical step should a market participant take when asking for a quote in a cross-rate not commonly traded on their desk?

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