Introduction to Credit Risk5 min
Credit risk involves the potential failure of a borrower to meet payment obligations. It is decomposed into default risk, the probability of the borrower failing to pay, and loss severity, the value lost if default occurs. The recovery rate is the complement of loss severity (1 minus Loss Given Default). Expected Loss is mathematically defined as Default Risk multiplied by Loss Severity. Investors also face spread risk, where the yield spread widens due to credit migration (downgrades) or liquidity issues, leading to price declines.

Key Points

  • Credit Risk = Default Risk combined with Loss Severity.
  • Expected Loss = Default Risk x Loss Severity.
  • Spread Risk includes Downgrade Risk and Market Liquidity Risk.
  • Loss Severity = 1 - Recovery Rate.
The 4 Cs of Credit Analysis5 min
Traditional credit analysis utilizes the '4 Cs' framework. 'Capacity' assesses the borrower's ability to repay debt through industry and company fundamentals. 'Collateral' refers to assets pledged to secure debt, crucial for less creditworthy companies. 'Covenants' are clauses in the bond indenture that protect lenders, categorized as affirmative (must do) or negative (must not do). 'Character' evaluates management's integrity and history of debt repayment.

Key Points

  • Capacity: Ability to service debt.
  • Collateral: Assets pledged against debt.
  • Covenants: Legal protections for lenders.
  • Character: Management reputation and history.
Sovereign and Non-Sovereign Credit Risk6 min
Sovereign credit analysis examines a government's ability and willingness to pay. Qualitative factors include political stability and policy effectiveness. Quantitative factors focus on fiscal strength (debt burden), economic stability (growth volatility), and external stability (currency reserves). Sovereign immunity poses a specific legal risk. Non-sovereign debt includes General Obligation (GO) bonds, supported by tax revenue, and Revenue bonds, supported by project-specific income. Revenue bonds generally carry higher risk due to their reliance on a single revenue source.

Key Points

  • Sovereign risk involves both ability and willingness to pay.
  • Key Sovereign ratios: Debt/GDP, Reserves/GDP.
  • GO Bonds: Backed by taxing authority.
  • Revenue Bonds: Backed by specific project revenues.
Corporate Credit Analysis and Seniority6 min
Corporate analysis blends qualitative assessments of business models and governance with quantitative ratio analysis. Key ratios measure profitability (margins), coverage (earnings vs interest), and leverage (debt vs earnings). In the event of default, the priority of claims is determined by seniority rankings. Secured debt (with collateral) ranks higher than unsecured debt. Subordinated debt ranks lowest. Credit ratings apply 'notching' to differentiate specific debt issues from the issuer's general credit rating based on this seniority and structural subordination.

Key Points

  • Corporate ratios: Profitability, Coverage, Leverage.
  • Seniority: Secured > Unsecured > Subordinated.
  • Pari passu: Equal ranking within a class.
  • Notching: Adjusting issue ratings relative to issuer ratings.

Questions

Question 1

What are the two primary components that comprise credit risk?

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Question 2

Which term describes the probability that a borrower fails to pay interest or repay principal when due?

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Question 3

How is Expected Loss calculated in the context of credit risk?

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Question 4

If the recovery rate of a bond is 40 percent, what is the loss severity?

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Question 5

Which risk refers to the possibility that a bond's spread will widen due to the issuer becoming less creditworthy?

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Question 6

Which of the '4 Cs' of credit analysis refers to the ability of the borrower to repay its debt obligations?

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Question 7

In credit analysis, what does 'Collateral' represent?

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Question 8

Which component of the '4 Cs' includes affirmative and negative provisions in the bond indenture?

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Question 9

Which factor is considered a 'Top-Down' factor in credit analysis?

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Question 10

What is the primary source of cash flow generation for a sovereign entity?

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Question 11

For a corporate borrower, what is considered a secondary source of liquidity for repayment?

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Question 12

Which formula correctly represents the calculation of Expected Loss (EL)?

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Question 13

If the Expected Exposure (EE) is 1,000,000 and the Recovery Rate (RR) is 60 percent, what is the Loss Given Default (LGD) in monetary terms?

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Question 14

Why might credit ratings lag market pricing?

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Question 15

How do economic cycles generally affect credit spreads?

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Question 16

Which factor influences the bid-ask spread of a bond?

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Question 17

What is 'sovereign immunity'?

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Question 18

Which of the following is a qualitative factor in sovereign creditworthiness?

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Question 19

Which ratio is used to measure a sovereign's fiscal strength?

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Question 20

What does the ratio 'Foreign Exchange Reserves to GDP' measure for a sovereign?

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Question 21

What distinguishes General Obligation (GO) bonds from Revenue bonds?

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Question 22

Which ratio is a key measure for analyzing Revenue Bonds?

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Question 23

What are 'Supranational Issuers'?

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Question 24

In corporate credit analysis, which 'C' includes the assessment of management's track record and strategy?

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Question 25

Which ratio measures a corporation's leverage?

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Question 26

What does the Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT to Interest Expense) indicate?

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Question 27

Which type of debt has the highest priority of claims?

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Question 28

What does the term 'pari passu' mean in the context of debt seniority?

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Question 29

What is 'notching' in credit ratings?

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Question 30

What is 'Structural Subordination'?

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Question 31

Which industry sector factor is part of a corporate credit analysis?

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Question 32

What is 'Loss Given Default' (LGD)?

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Question 33

Which risk is defined as the 'Risk of receiving less than market value' when selling a bond?

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Question 34

Affirmative covenants typically require the issuer to:

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Question 35

Under the 'Bottom-Up' factors of credit analysis, which element is assessed?

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Question 36

Which factor generally poses a significant credit risk for a corporate borrower?

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Question 37

What does 'Event Risk' refer to in the context of credit ratings?

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Question 38

In a sovereign credit analysis, 'Fiscal Discipline' is a component of:

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Question 39

Which debt ratio indicates the 'Debt Affordability' for a sovereign?

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Question 40

What represents a 'Quasi-governmental' issuer?

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Question 41

Which financial ratio helps assess a corporate issuer's profitability?

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Question 42

In the event of default, recovery rates are influenced by:

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Question 43

What does a 'Corporate Family Rating' (CFR) apply to?

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Question 44

Corporate Credit Ratings (CCR) or Issue Ratings are based on:

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Question 45

The risk that an issuer's 'spread' will widen due to a credit downgrade is called:

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Question 46

Which factor is assessed under 'Economic Diversification' for a sovereign?

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Question 47

What does the 'Retained Cash Flow (RCF) to Net Debt' ratio measure?

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Question 48

If a bond's spread widens, what is the direct impact on its price (holding yields constant)?

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Question 49

Which sovereign factor involves 'Access to External Funding'?

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Question 50

Why is 'notching' typically applied to subordinated debt?

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