Reading 44: Fundamentals of Credit Analysis

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Credit Risk Components and Market Structure6 min
Credit risk consists of default risk and loss severity. Default risk is the probability a borrower fails to pay, while loss severity is the monetary or percentage value lost upon default. The recovery rate is the complement of loss severity (1 minus loss severity). Bonds trade at a yield spread over risk-free bonds, reflecting creditworthiness and liquidity. Spread risk involves the potential for spreads to widen, reducing bond prices. This can occur due to credit migration (downgrade) or reduced market liquidity. Debt seniority is crucial in default scenarios, ranking from first lien/senior secured down to junior subordinated. In bankruptcy, the absolute priority of claims dictates payment order, though actual outcomes often involve compromise.

Key Points

  • Credit Risk = Default Risk × Loss Severity.
  • Recovery Rate = 1 − Loss Severity.
  • Spread Risk includes Credit Migration Risk and Market Liquidity Risk.
  • Seniority Ranking: Secured > Senior Unsecured > Subordinated > Junior Subordinated.
  • Absolute priority rule is the theoretical order of payment in bankruptcy.
Credit Ratings and the Four Cs7 min
Credit rating agencies assign Issuer Credit Ratings (Corporate Family Ratings) and Issue Credit Ratings (Corporate Credit Ratings). 'Notching' adjusts issue ratings up or down from the issuer rating based on seniority and collateral. Investment grade bonds are rated Baa3/BBB- or higher; high yield bonds are rated Ba1/BB+ or lower. Analysis focuses on the 'Four Cs': Capacity (ability to repay), Collateral (asset quality), Covenants (legal protections), and Character (management quality). Capacity assessment reviews industry structure and company fundamentals. Covenants are affirmative (requiring actions) or negative (restricting actions).

Key Points

  • Investment Grade: BBB-/Baa3 or higher.
  • High Yield: BB+/Ba1 or lower.
  • Notching accounts for seniority and structural subordination.
  • Four Cs: Capacity, Collateral, Covenants, Character.
  • Negative covenants restrict issuer actions (e.g., limits on debt).
Financial Analysis and Yield Spreads6 min
Financial analysis for creditworthiness relies on profitability, cash flow, leverage, and coverage ratios. Key metrics include EBITDA, Funds from Operations (FFO), and Free Cash Flow (FCF). Leverage ratios (e.g., Debt/Capital, Debt/EBITDA) measure the reliance on debt, while coverage ratios (e.g., EBITDA/Interest) measure the ability to service debt. Lower leverage and higher coverage indicate better credit quality. Yield spreads are driven by the credit cycle, economic conditions, financial market performance, broker-dealer capital, and supply/demand. Spreads narrow in good economic times and widen in recessions.

Key Points

  • EBITDA and FFO are key cash flow proxies.
  • Leverage Ratios: Debt/Capital, Debt/EBITDA.
  • Coverage Ratios: EBIT/Interest, EBITDA/Interest.
  • Credit spreads widen during economic weakness and narrow during expansion.
  • Broker-dealer capital availability affects market liquidity and spreads.
High Yield, Sovereign, and Non-Sovereign Debt6 min
High yield analysis emphasizes liquidity, debt structure, and corporate structure. Sources of liquidity are ranked by reliability, from balance sheet cash (most reliable) to asset sales (least reliable). Covenants like 'change of control puts' are common. Sovereign debt analysis evaluates a nation's ability and willingness to service debt, focusing on political stability, economic structure, external accounts, and fiscal/monetary flexibility. Foreign currency debt typically carries higher risk than local currency debt. Municipal bonds include General Obligation (GO) bonds, backed by tax authority, and Revenue bonds, backed by specific project revenues, with Revenue bonds generally carrying higher risk.

Key Points

  • High yield focus: Liquidity, specific covenants, debt structure.
  • Top-heavy capital structures have high secured bank debt.
  • Sovereign ratings distinguish between local and foreign currency debt.
  • Municipal GO bonds are backed by full faith and credit (taxes).
  • Municipal Revenue bonds rely on project cash flows.

Questions

Question 1

Credit risk is best described as being composed of which two components?

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Question 2

If a bond has a default probability of 2 percent and an expected recovery rate of 60 percent, the expected loss is closest to:

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Question 3

The risk that a bond's price will decline due to a widening of its yield spread relative to a benchmark is best classified as:

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Question 4

Which of the following rankings of debt seniority is correct, from highest priority to lowest priority?

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Question 5

In the event of a bankruptcy, the principle that senior creditors must be paid in full before junior creditors receive anything is known as:

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Question 6

Which of the following statements regarding recovery rates is most accurate?

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Question 7

The practice by rating agencies of assigning different ratings to bonds of the same issuer is best referred to as:

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Question 8

An issuer credit rating usually applies to the issuer's:

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Question 9

Which of the following ratings would indicate a bond is 'investment grade'?

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Question 10

Structural subordination is most relevant when analyzing the debt of:

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Question 11

Which of the 'Four Cs' of credit analysis focuses on the borrower's ability to generate cash flow to service debt?

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Question 12

In the context of the 'Four Cs', which of the following is considered a negative covenant?

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Question 13

When assessing 'Character' in credit analysis, an analyst would most likely evaluate:

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Question 14

Which of the following financial measures is calculated as Operating Income plus Depreciation and Amortization?

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Question 15

Funds from operations (FFO) is best described as:

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Question 16

Which of the following ratios is a 'coverage' ratio?

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Question 17

A lower value for which of the following ratios indicates lower credit risk?

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Question 18

Company A has Total Debt of $500 million, Shareholders' Equity of $500 million, and EBITDA of $100 million. What is its Debt/Capital ratio?

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Question 19

During which phase of the credit cycle do credit spreads typically narrow?

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Question 20

Yield spreads on corporate bonds are least likely to be affected by:

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Question 21

High yield bonds are often referred to as:

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Question 22

For a high yield issuer, which of the following sources of liquidity is considered the most reliable?

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Question 23

A 'change of control put' covenant in a high yield bond indenture allows bondholders to:

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Question 24

In a holding company structure, 'structural subordination' means that:

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Question 25

Which of the following is considered a 'top-heavy' capital structure?

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Question 26

Sovereign debt credit analysis assesses a government's willingness to pay because:

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Question 27

When rating sovereign debt, credit rating agencies typically assign:

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Question 28

General obligation (GO) municipal bonds are backed by:

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Question 29

Revenue bonds typically generally have higher yields than General Obligation bonds because:

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Question 30

Which of the following is NOT one of the five key areas for evaluating sovereign debt?

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Question 31

Enterprise Value (EV) is calculated as:

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Question 32

A limitation of relying solely on credit ratings is that:

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Question 33

Generally, for two bonds with equal duration, the one with a lower seniority ranking will exhibit:

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Question 34

Which of the following would be an example of an 'affirmative covenant'?

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Question 35

If a company has a 'restricted subsidiary', this means:

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Question 36

Regarding yield spreads, 'flight to quality' refers to:

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Question 37

A bond trading at a spread of +400 basis points over the benchmark Treasury having a yield of 3.0% would have a yield of:

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Question 38

Which factor would most likely cause credit spreads to narrow?

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Question 39

Which ratio measures the amount of debt in the capital structure relative to the company's equity market capitalization?

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Question 40

The ratio 'EBIT / Interest Expense' is also known as:

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Question 41

In credit analysis, 'goodwill' is typically:

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Question 42

A 'maintenance margin' requirement is relevant to futures, but in credit analysis, a covenant requiring a minimum Interest Coverage ratio is an example of:

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Question 43

Secured debt backed by a pledge of specific assets is often referred to as:

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Question 44

When calculating the 'Free cash flow after dividends' leverage ratio, a value greater than zero implies:

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Question 45

Municipal revenue bonds often have higher credit risk than GO bonds because:

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Question 46

Which of the following is an example of an 'institutional assessment' factor in sovereign credit analysis?

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Question 47

If a corporate bond portfolio manager wants to estimate the percentage change in value for a given change in yield spread, they should use:

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Question 48

Credit migration risk is also known as:

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Question 49

Which of the following would be an equity-like approach to high yield analysis?

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Question 50

The 'Two Cs' of sovereign credit analysis that are NOT part of the corporate 'Four Cs' might be best mapped to which sovereign categories?

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