Learning Module 14 Credit Risk
50 questions available
Key Points
- Credit risk components: POD, EE, RR => LGD; EL = POD * LGD.
- Approximation: Credit spread roughly equals POD * LGD.
- Cs of credit analysis and top-down factors shape POD and LGD.
- Rating agencies provide issuer and issue ratings but have limitations.
- IG versus HY describe large differences in default risk and spread.
Key Points
- Spread changes impact price similarly to yield changes using duration/convexity.
- Empirical duration incorporates market behavior including spread-yield correlation.
- Recovery rates are a function of seniority, collateral, and economic cycle.
- EL is sensitive to both POD and LGD; both must be evaluated.
Key Points
- Sovereign analysis blends institutional and fiscal/ external metrics; reserve currency status matters.
- Non-sovereign evaluation depends on pledge (tax vs. project revenue) and potential sovereign support.
- Corporate credit relies on business risk assessment and key financial ratios for POD estimation.
- Issue seniority and collateral drive LGD and rating notching.
Questions
Which two variables multiply together to form expected loss for a fixed-income exposure?
View answer and explanationAn unsecured corporate bond has POD = 2% and expected exposure of 1,000,000 with recovery rate 40%. What is the annual expected loss in currency terms?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes why rating agencies may lag market pricing of credit risk?
View answer and explanationWhich credit spread change effect on a bond's full price is best estimated by using modified duration and convexity?
View answer and explanationA bond has annual modified duration 6.0 and annual convexity 40. If the credit spread widens by 150 basis points (1.50%), what is the approximate percent price change (use decimal for spread change)?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is the best definition of Loss Given Default (LGD)?
View answer and explanationIf a bond investor expects a 'flight to quality,' which of the following describes the typical market response?
View answer and explanationWhich borrower characteristic from the Cs of credit most directly addresses management willingness and behavior toward creditors?
View answer and explanationAn investor calculates EL for two bonds: Bond A EL = 0.9% and Bond B EL = 3.0%. Bond A spread is 0.9% and Bond B spread is 4.2%. Which statement is best supported?
View answer and explanationWhich item is least likely to be captured effectively by a credit rating?
View answer and explanationWhich ratio is most commonly used as a measure of coverage in corporate credit analysis?
View answer and explanationA secured loan has first-lien collateral valued at 120 and the first-lien debt outstanding is 80. If the borrower defaults and collateral can be sold at 80% of book value, what is the recovery for the first-lien creditor?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best explains why empirical duration may differ from analytical duration for corporate bonds with credit risk?
View answer and explanationWhich sector typically shows higher sensitivity of spreads over the economic cycle: investment-grade corporate bonds or high-yield bonds?
View answer and explanationAn analyst approximates an issuer's credit spread by POD*LGD. If POD = 4% and LGD = 40% (as percent of principal), what is the approximate credit spread in basis points implied by this calculation?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following corporate actions would most likely increase an issuer’s probability of default in the near term?
View answer and explanationWhich type of bond holder generally receives priority in recovery after asset sales in a corporate bankruptcy?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a top-down factor in sovereign credit analysis referenced in the module?
View answer and explanationWhich statement best describes the relationship between issuer ratings and issue ratings?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is the best reason that secured debt usually has a lower yield than unsecured debt for the same issuer?
View answer and explanationWhich of these is an example of an internal credit enhancement used in ABS structures?
View answer and explanationWhich financial ratio would a credit analyst use to assess a corporation's leverage in an industry-standard way referenced in the module?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following scenarios would most likely reduce an issuer's recovery expectation on its subordinated bonds?
View answer and explanationAn analyst believes credit spreads will widen 100 basis points for a corporate bond with modified duration 5 and convexity 20 (annualized). What is the approximate percent price change including convexity?
View answer and explanationWhich recovery pattern is most likely for unsecured senior bonds compared to first-lien secured bonds during industry-wide defaults, based on historical averages discussed in the module?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following issuer types would most likely benefit from empirical duration measures rather than analytical duration?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes 'credit migration risk'?
View answer and explanationWhich macroeconomic indicator, if it deteriorates sharply, is most likely to lead to wider credit spreads broadly across high-yield corporate bonds?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following is a typical feature of high-yield bond investors compared with investment-grade investors, as noted in the module?
View answer and explanationWhich factor most reduces a sovereign's default likelihood relative to similar-size peers, according to the chapter?
View answer and explanationAn analyst observes two bonds from the same issuer: one issued by the operating subsidiary and one by the parent holding company; there is no cross-guarantee. Which statement is most likely true about recovery in default?
View answer and explanationWhich indicator in sovereign credit analysis measures debt affordability directly?
View answer and explanationWhich best practice should an analyst follow when using credit ratings in investment decisions, based on module guidance?
View answer and explanationWhich factor most directly increases Loss Given Default for unsecured creditors?
View answer and explanationWhich scenario would most likely cause empirical duration for a corporate bond to be lower than its analytical duration?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes the role of covenants in credit risk mitigation?
View answer and explanationWhich warning sign in a firm's disclosures was highlighted by the module as a red flag of potential accounting or governance issues?
View answer and explanationIf historical average recovery for subordinated bonds in an industry is 25% and projected POD for the bond is 8% for next year, what is the approximate expected loss as a percent of principal?
View answer and explanationWhich practice is most appropriate when comparing credit spreads among different issuers?
View answer and explanationWhich statement best summarizes the role of expected exposure (EE) in the EL calculation?
View answer and explanationWhich corporate financial ratio from the module is most useful to gauge short-term liquidity risk?
View answer and explanationWhat is the main reason securitized ABS may offer a lower funding cost to an originator compared with the originator issuing unsecured corporate bonds?
View answer and explanationWhich credit feature explains why sovereign creditors cannot usually force a bankruptcy and liquidation for sovereign debtors unlike corporate debtors?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes a major benefit of overcollateralization in ABS structures?
View answer and explanationWhich rating category corresponds to investment-grade status on S&P and Fitch scales, according to the module?
View answer and explanationWhich issuer action would most likely increase the loss given default for unsecured bondholders?
View answer and explanationWhich sovereign characteristic is most directly measured by FX reserves to GDP ratio, as shown in the module?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following recovery patterns would you expect for bonds defaulting in a strong economic environment versus a weak one, all else equal?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best describes a situation where an investor would prefer empirical duration estimates over analytical duration estimates?
View answer and explanationWhich of the following best captures a reason to conduct scenario analysis or stress testing in credit portfolios, as emphasized by the module?
View answer and explanation