Core Concepts of Credit Risk and Measurement5 min
Credit risk is the risk of economic loss from a borrower failing to make timely and full payments of interest and principal. The two primary components of credit risk are probability of default (POD) and loss given default (LGD); LGD combines expected exposure (EE or exposure at default, EAD) and the recovery rate (RR) where LGD = EE(1 - RR) and expected loss (EL) = POD LGD. Investors compare expected loss to the credit spread as an approximation: credit spread approximately equals POD times LGD. Sources of credit risk include macroeconomic conditions, industry and issuer-specific factors, financing mismatches, and adverse shocks. The Cs of credit analysis (capacity, capital, collateral, covenants, character) and top-down factors (country, currency, conditions) are used in credit assessments. Credit rating agencies (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch) issue issuer and issue ratings that aim to summarize default risk; ratings concentrate market information but have limits: they can lag market pricing, may not capture some risks (litigation, fraud, ESG), and differ across agencies. Investment-grade (IG) vs high-yield (HY) classifications reflect broad default risk differences.

Key Points

  • Credit risk components: POD, EE, RR => LGD; EL = POD * LGD.
  • Approximation: Credit spread roughly equals POD * LGD.
  • Cs of credit analysis and top-down factors shape POD and LGD.
  • Rating agencies provide issuer and issue ratings but have limitations.
  • IG versus HY describe large differences in default risk and spread.
Spreads, Duration Interaction, and Recovery5 min
Credit spreads reflect compensation for default risk, liquidity risk, and other premiums; spreads widen in downturns and tighten in expansions. Spread changes affect bond returns via duration and convexity in the same way yields do; %DeltaPV approx = -DurationDeltaSpread + 0.5Convexity*(DeltaSpread)^2. Curve-based and empirical duration concepts can show divergence from analytical duration when benchmark yields and credit spreads are negatively correlated in stress periods (flight to quality). Recovery rates depend on seniority and collateral: first-lien secured debt typically recovers more than senior unsecured, which recovers more than subordinated debt. Historical recovery data vary by industry and cycle and are important in estimating LGD and expected loss.

Key Points

  • Spread changes impact price similarly to yield changes using duration/convexity.
  • Empirical duration incorporates market behavior including spread-yield correlation.
  • Recovery rates are a function of seniority, collateral, and economic cycle.
  • EL is sensitive to both POD and LGD; both must be evaluated.
Sovereign, Non-sovereign, and Corporate Credit Analysis6 min
Sovereign credit analysis combines qualitative (institutions, fiscal policy credibility, monetary effectiveness, economic diversification, external status including reserve currency and FX reserves) and quantitative measures (debt-to-GDP, interest-to-revenue, current account, reserves). Willingness to pay and sovereign immunity are key considerations. Non-sovereign issuers (agencies, supranationals, regional governments, revenue bonds) require analysis of revenue sources, project economics, and possible sovereign support. Corporate credit analysis emphasizes business model, industry dynamics, governance, and financial ratios: profitability (EBIT margin), coverage (EBIT/interest or EBITDA/interest), leverage (Debt/EBITDA, RCF/net debt), and liquidity. Scenario modelling and stress tests inform probability of default. Issue-level analysis includes seniority and security features that determine LGD and the notching applied by rating agencies.

Key Points

  • Sovereign analysis blends institutional and fiscal/ external metrics; reserve currency status matters.
  • Non-sovereign evaluation depends on pledge (tax vs. project revenue) and potential sovereign support.
  • Corporate credit relies on business risk assessment and key financial ratios for POD estimation.
  • Issue seniority and collateral drive LGD and rating notching.

Questions

Question 1

Which two variables multiply together to form expected loss for a fixed-income exposure?

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Question 2

An unsecured corporate bond has POD = 2% and expected exposure of 1,000,000 with recovery rate 40%. What is the annual expected loss in currency terms?

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Question 3

Which of the following best describes why rating agencies may lag market pricing of credit risk?

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Question 4

Which credit spread change effect on a bond's full price is best estimated by using modified duration and convexity?

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Question 5

A bond has annual modified duration 6.0 and annual convexity 40. If the credit spread widens by 150 basis points (1.50%), what is the approximate percent price change (use decimal for spread change)?

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Question 6

Which of the following is the best definition of Loss Given Default (LGD)?

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Question 7

If a bond investor expects a 'flight to quality,' which of the following describes the typical market response?

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Question 8

Which borrower characteristic from the Cs of credit most directly addresses management willingness and behavior toward creditors?

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Question 9

An investor calculates EL for two bonds: Bond A EL = 0.9% and Bond B EL = 3.0%. Bond A spread is 0.9% and Bond B spread is 4.2%. Which statement is best supported?

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Question 10

Which item is least likely to be captured effectively by a credit rating?

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Question 11

Which ratio is most commonly used as a measure of coverage in corporate credit analysis?

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Question 12

A secured loan has first-lien collateral valued at 120 and the first-lien debt outstanding is 80. If the borrower defaults and collateral can be sold at 80% of book value, what is the recovery for the first-lien creditor?

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Question 13

Which of the following best explains why empirical duration may differ from analytical duration for corporate bonds with credit risk?

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Question 14

Which sector typically shows higher sensitivity of spreads over the economic cycle: investment-grade corporate bonds or high-yield bonds?

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Question 15

An analyst approximates an issuer's credit spread by POD*LGD. If POD = 4% and LGD = 40% (as percent of principal), what is the approximate credit spread in basis points implied by this calculation?

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Question 16

Which of the following corporate actions would most likely increase an issuer’s probability of default in the near term?

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Question 17

Which type of bond holder generally receives priority in recovery after asset sales in a corporate bankruptcy?

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Question 18

Which of the following is a top-down factor in sovereign credit analysis referenced in the module?

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Question 19

Which statement best describes the relationship between issuer ratings and issue ratings?

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Question 20

Which of the following is the best reason that secured debt usually has a lower yield than unsecured debt for the same issuer?

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Question 21

Which of these is an example of an internal credit enhancement used in ABS structures?

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Question 22

Which financial ratio would a credit analyst use to assess a corporation's leverage in an industry-standard way referenced in the module?

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Question 23

Which of the following scenarios would most likely reduce an issuer's recovery expectation on its subordinated bonds?

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Question 24

An analyst believes credit spreads will widen 100 basis points for a corporate bond with modified duration 5 and convexity 20 (annualized). What is the approximate percent price change including convexity?

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Question 25

Which recovery pattern is most likely for unsecured senior bonds compared to first-lien secured bonds during industry-wide defaults, based on historical averages discussed in the module?

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Question 26

Which of the following issuer types would most likely benefit from empirical duration measures rather than analytical duration?

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Question 27

Which of the following best describes 'credit migration risk'?

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Question 28

Which macroeconomic indicator, if it deteriorates sharply, is most likely to lead to wider credit spreads broadly across high-yield corporate bonds?

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Question 29

Which of the following is a typical feature of high-yield bond investors compared with investment-grade investors, as noted in the module?

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Question 30

Which factor most reduces a sovereign's default likelihood relative to similar-size peers, according to the chapter?

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Question 31

An analyst observes two bonds from the same issuer: one issued by the operating subsidiary and one by the parent holding company; there is no cross-guarantee. Which statement is most likely true about recovery in default?

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Question 32

Which indicator in sovereign credit analysis measures debt affordability directly?

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Question 33

Which best practice should an analyst follow when using credit ratings in investment decisions, based on module guidance?

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Question 34

Which factor most directly increases Loss Given Default for unsecured creditors?

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Question 35

Which scenario would most likely cause empirical duration for a corporate bond to be lower than its analytical duration?

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Question 36

Which of the following best describes the role of covenants in credit risk mitigation?

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Question 37

Which warning sign in a firm's disclosures was highlighted by the module as a red flag of potential accounting or governance issues?

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Question 38

If historical average recovery for subordinated bonds in an industry is 25% and projected POD for the bond is 8% for next year, what is the approximate expected loss as a percent of principal?

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Question 39

Which practice is most appropriate when comparing credit spreads among different issuers?

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Question 40

Which statement best summarizes the role of expected exposure (EE) in the EL calculation?

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Question 41

Which corporate financial ratio from the module is most useful to gauge short-term liquidity risk?

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Question 42

What is the main reason securitized ABS may offer a lower funding cost to an originator compared with the originator issuing unsecured corporate bonds?

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Question 43

Which credit feature explains why sovereign creditors cannot usually force a bankruptcy and liquidation for sovereign debtors unlike corporate debtors?

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Question 44

Which of the following best describes a major benefit of overcollateralization in ABS structures?

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Question 45

Which rating category corresponds to investment-grade status on S&P and Fitch scales, according to the module?

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Question 46

Which issuer action would most likely increase the loss given default for unsecured bondholders?

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Question 47

Which sovereign characteristic is most directly measured by FX reserves to GDP ratio, as shown in the module?

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Question 48

Which of the following recovery patterns would you expect for bonds defaulting in a strong economic environment versus a weak one, all else equal?

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Question 49

Which of the following best describes a situation where an investor would prefer empirical duration estimates over analytical duration estimates?

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Question 50

Which of the following best captures a reason to conduct scenario analysis or stress testing in credit portfolios, as emphasized by the module?

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