Overview and Key Concepts5 min
This chapter introduces hypothesis testing as a structured six-step process used to make inference decisions about population parameters from sample data. The six steps are: (1) state null (H0) and alternative (Ha) hypotheses in terms of population parameters, ensuring they are mutually exclusive and exhaustive; (2) identify the appropriate test statistic and its sampling distribution (z, t, chi-square, F, etc.); (3) select the significance level alpha (probability of Type I error); (4) state the decision rule (critical value(s) or p-value threshold); (5) collect data and calculate the test statistic; (6) make a decision (reject or fail to reject H0) and interpret results. The chapter emphasizes that hypothesis tests never prove H0 true; they only assess whether sample evidence is strong enough to reject H0. Type I error (false positive) is rejecting a true H0; its probability is alpha. Type II error (false negative) is failing to reject a false H0; its probability is beta. Test power is 1 - beta, the probability of correctly rejecting a false H0. Lowering alpha raises beta unless sample size increases. The p-value is the smallest alpha at which H0 would be rejected given observed data; compare p-value to chosen alpha for decision-making.

Key Points

  • Six-step hypothesis testing framework
  • Type I error = alpha; Type II error = beta; power = 1 - beta
  • p-value is smallest alpha to reject H0
  • One- vs two-sided alternatives must be specified in advance
  • Sample size affects power and standard errors
Common Test Statistics and Finance Applications7 min
Common test statistics and their contexts are summarized: for a single mean when sigma is unknown and sample is approximately normal, use t = (Xbar - mu0) / (s / sqrt(n)) with n - 1 degrees of freedom; for comparing two independent means with equal variances, use pooled t with n1 + n2 - 2 df; for paired samples, use t on differences with n - 1 df; for a single variance of a normal population, use chi-square = (n - 1) s^2 / sigma0^2 with n - 1 df; for comparing two variances use F = s1^2 / s2^2 with df n1 - 1 and n2 - 1; for correlation use t = r sqrt((n - 2) / (1 - r^2)) with n - 2 df. The chapter demonstrates testing in finance: testing fund mean returns against model-implied mean, testing variance thresholds (chi-square), comparing returns across periods (independent samples t) or paired indexes (paired t), testing equality of variances before and after events (F-test). It illustrates calculation of test statistics, critical values, p-values, decision rules, and interpretation of results in context.

Key Points

  • t-tests for means and correlations
  • chi-square for single-variance tests
  • F-test for comparing variances and regression fit
  • Independent vs paired sample decisions change test form
  • Worked financial examples demonstrate application
Nonparametric Tests and Contingency Tables6 min
Parametric tests require distributional assumptions. Nonparametric tests make minimal assumptions or focus on ranks/signs instead of parameters and are useful when assumptions fail, sample sizes are small, data are ordinal/ranked, or outliers are present. Examples: Wilcoxon signed-rank, Mann-Whitney U (Wilcoxon rank-sum), Spearman rank correlation, sign test, and runs test. The chapter covers tests of independence for categorical data using contingency tables with chi-square test statistic sum((Oij - Eij)^2/Eij) and df = (r - 1)(c - 1); expected cell counts Eij = (row total * column total) / grand total. Standardized (Pearson) residuals (Oij - Eij)/sqrt(Eij) help identify cells with largest deviations. It underscores practical considerations: correctly formulating one- versus two-tailed hypotheses; ensuring sample observations come from comparable populations (avoid pooling heterogeneous regimes); sample size effects (central limit theorem allows approximately normal sampling distribution of the mean for large n); effect of outliers and data errors on regression and correlation analyses; and using diagnostic plots or descriptive checks before testing.

Key Points

  • Nonparametric tests for rank/ordinal data or when assumptions fail
  • Spearman correlation uses ranks; Wilcoxon and Mann-Whitney alternatives to t-tests
  • Chi-square contingency test compares observed vs expected cell frequencies
  • Standardized residuals identify influential cells
  • Always check data quality, homogeneity, and outliers before testing
Regression, Indicators, and Inference6 min
The chapter illustrates hypothesis testing within regression: testing slope or intercept using t-statistics (b_hat - B0)/se(b_hat) with df = n - k - 1; overall model fit using F = MSR/MSE with appropriate dfs; interpretation of p-values; and relation of t^2 = F for single-parameter tests. Using indicator (dummy) variables in simple regressions allows testing mean differences between groups directly (slope equals difference in group means; intercept equals mean when dummy = 0). Guidance includes choosing significance levels, computing prediction intervals using the standard error of forecast sf = se * sqrt(1 + 1/n + (Xf - Xbar)^2 / sum((Xi - Xbar)^2)), and interpretation of intervals. Practical examples highlight how data errors and outliers can distort R-squared, slopes, and standard errors, and therefore the importance of data cleaning. The chapter concludes with practice problems that emphasize application to returns, volatilities, forecasting errors, and contingency classifications in finance.

Key Points

  • t-tests for regression coefficients and F-test for overall fit
  • indicator variables let regression test mean differences between groups
  • prediction intervals require forecast standard error and t-critical value
  • data errors/outliers can materially alter regression outcomes
  • interpret tests in financial context (returns, volatilities, forecasts)

Questions

Question 1

An analyst tests H0: mu = 0.05 versus Ha: mu > 0.05 using a one-sample t-test with n = 25 and obtains t = 1.75. Using a 5 percent significance level, the critical t-value (one-sided) is approximately 1.711. What should the analyst conclude?

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Question 2

A fund manager wishes to test whether annual returns differ between two independent samples: sample A (n1 = 40, mean = 8.0, sd = 10.0) and sample B (n2 = 50, mean = 5.0, sd = 8.0). Assuming equal population variances, what is the pooled estimate of variance (sp^2)?

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Question 3

You want to test whether the variance of monthly returns for a fund is less than 0.04 (i.e., sigma^2 < 0.04). You have n = 20, sample variance s^2 = 0.06. Which test statistic and decision rule are appropriate (left-tailed test) at alpha = 0.05?

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Question 4

A researcher computes correlation r = 0.35 from n = 32 paired observations. Which test and degrees of freedom should be used to test H0: rho = 0?

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Question 5

Two yearly periods produce independent samples of daily returns. Period 1: n1 = 445, mean1 = 0.01775 percent, var1 = 0.09973^2 (use s1^2 = 0.09973). Period 2: n2 = 859, mean2 = 0.01134 percent, var2 = 0.15023^2 (use s2^2 = 0.15023). Assuming equal variances, what is the pooled variance sp^2 used for the two-sample t-test?

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Question 6

An analyst runs a chi-square test for independence on a 3x3 contingency table with r = 3 rows and c = 3 columns. What are the degrees of freedom for the chi-square test?

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Question 7

You observe a sample correlation r = 0.3102 from n = 36 observations. Using a two-sided 5 percent test (critical t ≈ ±2.032 for df = 34), the calculated t-statistic is 1.903. What is the conclusion?

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Question 8

Which statement correctly describes the relation between significance level alpha and Type II error beta, all else equal?

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Question 9

An analyst has two dependent samples (paired): before and after returns for the same assets. Which test is most appropriate to test for a mean difference?

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Question 10

You run a two-sided test of H0: mu = mu0 using t-statistic and get p-value = 0.032. Which of the following is correct at alpha = 0.05?

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Question 11

A two-sample F-test compares variances s1^2 and s2^2 from independent normal samples with sizes n1 and n2. If the calculated F = s1^2 / s2^2 = 1.185 and critical values for two-tailed 5 percent are 0.82512 and 1.21194, what is the conclusion?

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Question 12

Which nonparametric test is the appropriate rank-based alternative to the two-sample independent t-test (comparing medians) when assumptions of normality are violated?

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Question 13

A manager tests H0: mu <= 5% versus Ha: mu > 5% and selects alpha = 0.05. Which tail(s) contain the rejection region and what is the nature of the test?

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Question 14

Which of the following best describes a Type I error in hypothesis testing?

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Question 15

In a test of difference between two independent means with unknown and unequal variances, which approach is appropriate?

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Question 16

An analyst tests whether the standard deviation of returns is less than 4 percent using n = 24, s = 3.6 percent, sigma0 = 4 percent, alpha = 0.05 (one-sided left test). The chi-square test statistic is (n - 1)s^2 / sigma0^2 = 23*0.1296 / 0.16 = 18.63. The critical chi-square left-tail value is approximately 13.09. How to conclude?

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Question 17

Which of the following is TRUE about p-values?

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Question 18

A contingency table chi-square test yields total chi-square = 32.08 with df = 4 and critical chi-square (0.95, 4) = 9.488. What conclusion about independence of classifications should be drawn at 5 percent?

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Question 19

Which test statistic (distribution) is appropriate for testing H0: mu = mu0 when population is approximately normal and sigma is unknown?

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Question 20

An analyst uses a dummy (indicator) variable equal to 1 in months with earnings announcements and 0 otherwise, regressing monthly returns on this indicator. The estimated slope on the indicator equals 1.21 with t = 10.44. What does the slope measure?

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Question 21

Which of the following best describes the power of a test?

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Question 22

In testing H0: sigma1^2 = sigma2^2 for two independent normal populations using sample variances s1^2 and s2^2, an F-statistic is formed as F = s1^2 / s2^2. If n1 = 50, n2 = 50, s1^2 = 4.644, s2^2 = 3.919, what is F and how to interpret at 5 percent two-tailed (critical upper ≈ 1.21194 and lower ≈ 0.82512)?

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Question 23

When should an analyst prefer nonparametric tests over parametric tests?

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Question 24

Which test and degrees of freedom apply to test whether regression slope b1 equals zero in a simple linear regression estimated with n observations?

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Question 25

If you wish to test whether two categorical variables are independent, which test do you use and what input is required?

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Question 26

A researcher pools two years of quarterly returns even though strategies changed between years, obtaining a lower Sharpe ratio for the pooled data than for each year separately. What is the likely reason?

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Question 27

An analyst computes Spearman rank correlation r_s = 0.6916 using n = 35. For a two-sided test at alpha = 0.05, what test statistic and df are used to test H0: r_s = 0?

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Question 28

In a test concerning a single variance using chi-square with df = n - 1, why must the population be normally distributed for the chi-square test to be valid?

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Question 29

A statistician wants to compare means of two independent samples where observations are strongly non-normal and contain outliers. Which approach is most appropriate?

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Question 30

If you observe a calculated F-statistic in regression of 16.01 with df1 = 1 and df2 = 4, and the 5 percent critical F is 7.71, what conclusion can be drawn about the null that the slope equals zero?

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Question 31

Which of the following is a correct interpretation of a 95 percent confidence interval for a mean constructed from sample data?

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Question 32

An analyst has sample correlation r = -0.1452 with n = 248. The t-statistic using formula t = r sqrt((n-2)/(1-r^2)) is -2.302. Using two-sided 5 percent critical approximately ±1.967, what can the analyst conclude?

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Question 33

Which statement best summarizes the distinction between standard deviation and standard error?

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Question 34

Which of the following is an appropriate two-sided null and alternative hypothesis concerning a population correlation coefficient rho?

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Question 35

What is the effect of increasing sample size on the sampling distribution of the sample mean according to the central limit theorem?

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Question 36

Which test statistic and distribution are appropriate when testing equality of two population means using two independent samples with unknown but equal variances?

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Question 37

You fit a linear regression and obtain t-statistic for slope = 4.00 with df = 4. What is the two-sided p-value roughly (note t=4.00 corresponds to small p)?

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Question 38

When estimating a regression slope, which of the following will reduce the standard error of the slope estimate, all else equal?

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Question 39

Which of these is the correct formula for the expected frequency Eij in a contingency table under independence?

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Question 40

A fund returned mean monthly 1.5% with sample sd = 3.6% and n = 24. Test whether mean differs from 1.1% at 5 percent two-sided. Compute t = (1.5 - 1.1) / (3.6 / sqrt(24)) = 0.544. Given critical t ±2.069 (df 23), conclusion?

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Question 41

Which of these is TRUE about one-tailed versus two-tailed tests at same alpha level?

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Question 42

Which test is appropriate to compare two variances from independent normal samples?

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Question 43

An analyst obtains p-value = 0.056 in a two-sided test at alpha = 0.05. Which is correct?

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Question 44

Which is the correct test for assessing whether the sample median differs from hypothesized value when no analytical standard error formula available?

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Question 45

Which statistic should be used to test H0: sigma^2_before = sigma^2_after for two equal-sized samples each with n = 120 and observed variances s_before^2 = 22.367 and s_after^2 = 15.795 at alpha = 0.05?

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Question 46

If residuals from a regression show a clear U-shaped pattern when plotted against X, which regression assumption is most likely violated?

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Question 47

Why might an analyst prefer a nonparametric test like Wilcoxon signed-rank over a t-test when analyzing paired data?

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Question 48

When performing a test of equality of two means based on independent samples with unknown but equal variances, the t-statistic denominator uses pooled variance. How is pooled variance estimated?

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Question 49

A regression of Y on X yields residual standard error se = 3.46 and sum((Xi - Xbar)^2) = 122.64. What is the standard error of slope b_hat1?

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Question 50

Which of the following best summarizes when to use Spearman rank correlation instead of Pearson correlation?

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